From the Text Book: HAND READING

naphand · #1 08-02-2005, 01:35 PM

For all aspiring poker demons, a hand reading exercise!

TABLE: Playing quite tight, and most hands are getting raised PF. Player to my immediate left is loose (V$IP 40%) to the Button they are tighter (typically V$IP 15-17) but do know where to find the raise button. Button is unknown, Blinds are somewhat loose.

I feel strangely confident that a limp will get raised, so why not go for the text-book LRR. I have not done it in a long time... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

The man to watch here is on the Button.

$2/$4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Naphand calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises, Button calls, 2 folds, Naphand 3-bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Naphand bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button raises, Naphand 3-bets, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Thus far I feel pretty pleased with myself.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Naphand bets, Button raises, Naphand calls.

Damn! That was unexpected. I have to call this down IMO.

River: (14.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Naphand checks, Button bets, Naphand calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB

OK people, tell me what Button has.

PS
This is not so hard, but if we get a sufficient response I may run a weekly "Guess the hand for $20" post... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Bill C · #2 08-02-2005, 01:41 PM

Pocket 3's or 4's
bc

SeaEagle · #3 08-02-2005, 01:44 PM

Why do you think this is not so hard? You have no read on button and the hand he's representing is 65 or maybe 77. However, if he would call a raise w/ 65, I see no reason that he couldn't have any number of made hands where he would wait until the turn to raise you - 43 or any set, for instance.

meep_42 · #4 08-02-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pocket 3's or 4's
bc

[/ QUOTE ]

or 56s.

-d

JinX11 · #5 08-02-2005, 01:46 PM

Seems like a large number of hands are possible, given the button is unknown.

In order of likelihood, I'll go with:

1) AQs/AQ - 40%
2) KQs - 15%
3) 44 - 10%
4) 33 - 10%
5) 77 - 10%
5) 56s - 5%
6) KK or QQ - 5%
7) 88-TT - 5%

EDIT: to add 77 into the mix.

Derek in NYC · #6 08-02-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Button is unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad hand reading exercise.

All you know is that the button cold called, then raised on the turn against a player who limp-reraised preflop and three-bet the flop, then bet the river when checked to.

The button could hold a wide range of hands including 33, 44, 77, AQ, if he's a "normal" player, or he could have something stronger like QQ or KK if he's more rockish, or he could have total trash like Q7s if he is a LAG.

Without a read on this player, it is impossible to pinpoint this guy on a hand.

hobbsmann · #7 08-02-2005, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

56s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or an oddly played QQ. I swear there are so many people that are afraid to 3-bet queens preflop.

centja1 · #8 08-02-2005, 01:51 PM

Against a typical player, you're going to get shown 44 or 33 here a VERY high percentage of the time. he will have QQ some of the time and chosen not to have 3-bet preflop, but I think that is probably not a large part of his range. While I don't think you can completely rule out AQ (somewhat logical) or 56 (very remote), I think the two lower sets are in his hand > 80% of the time. He almost hung out a sign for you when he called the 3-bet on the flop and then raised the turn.

Assuming you're unknown to him as well, he has to put you on aces or kings (or something similar) because of the LRR, so he will stop raising with AQ and either call down or fold. without a read, 56 gets a very small portion of his range. very few typical players will go for three bets pre-flop with any hand that will make two pair with this board, which leaves overpairs, QQ, 44, and 33.

we give KK about the same likelihood as QQ due to the lack of a preflop 3-bet.

As I said before, I'd lay odds on 33 or 44.

Harv72b · #9 08-02-2005, 01:53 PM

56s.

W. Deranged · #10 08-02-2005, 01:58 PM

56s is my vote (edit: that may not have been clear).

33 or 44-- less likely to be out because usually standard bad small stakes players would not raise the flop with the hope of getting three-bet in order to raise the turn. That's too sweet a play.

77 -- I don't see 77 raising the flop here all that often given the call-raise move by hero. It's a little too agg., but it is possible.

QQ -- Similar arguments as 33 and 44, plus the fact that there was not pre-flop three-bet.

AQ -- Not raising waiting and raising the turn after the flop three bet. Most SS players aren't so aggro.

Villain's line is most consistent with a speculative hand in position, raising the flop for free card with a big draw and/or just raising because it's a good draw and people do that (and it happens to be correct), and then popping the turn when it hits.