BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.

flawless_victory · #1 10-13-2005, 08:52 PM

opponent is comepletely unknown and seems typical over about 10 hands.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

River: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: 11 BB

im calling a river bet, obviously.

robinsons · #2 10-13-2005, 09:05 PM

preflop: without a read, I'm probably folding this without a read on the opponent. I do not play 20/40 so cannot comment on players there, but unless you have a good deal of fold equity I don't like it OOP. After the 3bet, I don't see what the benefit of the cap is - at best you're putting in money 50/50 without position.
Flop - a good probabilty that this hasn't hit him, however he is going to call with overcards.
Turn - again a good chance you are still best here, however without a read his raise makes me fell uncomforatable but there's still a good enough chance that he's getting agro with overs to call down. Is the 3bet meant to try and fold a better hand, or for value? This is a play that I'd never make (judging by what I have seen from your past posts, you are a far better player than I), however I'd be interested in your reasoning here.
river - see above.

The Truth · #3 10-13-2005, 09:20 PM

I would just call the preflop 3 bet and check/rase the flop.

The cap isn't horrible, just not optimal.

If I cap, the flop is standard.

Turn I dont like. When he raises, just call. Don't give him an opportunity to punish you worse if he has a made hand. He doesn't fold anything that beats you to the 3 bet, or any draw.

Call turn and donk bet river. Or call turn and check/call river.

Same amount of bets with less risk me thinks.

-blake

NLSoldier · #4 10-13-2005, 09:48 PM

I was with you till the turn 3bet...

Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy.
I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing.

I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic?

flawless_victory · #5 10-13-2005, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was with you till the turn 3bet...

Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy.
I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing.

I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic?

[/ QUOTE ]basically, based on his timing and the board texture, i felt it was very likely that turn card helped him... look at all those draws (you left out any hand that contains a 7 or 6)... i did think there may have made a pair of 8s, but i didnt think he could punish me any further with that hand.

wheelz · #6 10-13-2005, 10:29 PM

so are you folding to a turn cap then? again your reasoning makes sense, but he's probably betting the river if he misses his draw, so i don't know that this is much better than just calling down.

flawless_victory · #7 10-13-2005, 11:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so are you folding to a turn cap then?

[/ QUOTE ]
probably not.
[ QUOTE ]
i don't know that this is much better than just calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]
- i think he will take the showdown/give up often.
- he still may bluff the riv w/ JT netting me four bets.
- metagame.

NLSoldier · #8 10-14-2005, 12:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was with you till the turn 3bet...

Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy.
I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing.

I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic?

[/ QUOTE ]basically, based on his timing and the board texture, i felt it was very likely that turn card helped him... look at all those draws (you left out any hand that contains a 7 or 6)... i did think there may have made a pair of 8s, but i didnt think he could punish me any further with that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I left out hands with at 7 or 6 cuz I dont see him 3betting with many of those, nor raising the turn with them Maaaybe like Th7h but I think thats a stretch.

Going by my original range...I came up with 52 hands we are ahead of, and 42 we are behind. Which means on the turn we are winning about 55% of the time. But of the times he is behind, he will improve an average of about 20%, and of the times we are behind, we only improve about 4%, and we dont have the 3H, so we could improve and still lose.

Unless his range is signifigantly different than what I have given him (maybe due to bet timing?), or unless this move has huge metagame effects, I dont see how it can possibly be +EV given the calculations I just did.

flawless_victory · #9 10-14-2005, 12:56 AM

he will almost never have an overpair and he will have TP evn less.

NLSoldier · #10 10-14-2005, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
he will almost never have an overpair and he will have TP evn less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he would raise the flop with those? Hoping you will go off for multiple bets at some point? I thought about that and I think I agree. Fastplaying is the new slowplaying and slow playing is now a weak line.