Fold AA Preflop?

[imported_legoman]

Ok, this is purely hypothetical, but is AA a fold in this situation:

200/400 blinds.
Hero: t700
BB: t3100
UTG: t3100
Button: t3100

UTG pushes, Button calls, you're sitting in the SB with AA.
If you fold, you're left with 500 chips and guaranteed ITM. The stacks will be 500, 2700, 6800, giving you $114 of EV (assuming 50+5).

If you call, you'll win around 2/3 times. (Against random hands it's 70%, but the button calling the push means he has some kind of hand -> lower win %).
If you win, the stacks will be 2500, 2700, and 4800. EV of $154. And if you lose, then you bust and EV = 0. So the EV of a call is 2/3 of $154, or $102.

Also, a fold lowers variance.

[samr]

ICM calculation follows. Assume BB folds.

Fold, next hand stacks are:
Hero t500, on the button
BB t2700, in the SB
Button/UTG t6800, in the BB.
ICM = 0.2275

Call, win main pot:
Hero t2500
BB t2700
Button/UTG t4800
ICM = 0.3073

Call, lose:
ICM = 0

If you expect to win 2/3 times,
ICMev = 2/3*0.3073 + 1/3*0 = 0.2049

If you fold: ICMev = 0.2275
If you call: ICMev = 0.2049

ICM says it's a fold. It doesn't take into account the blinds, your position, and the probability that you get 3rd. With that in mind, I call and hope to triple up.


-- Edit:

Break even point:
0.2275 = x*0.3073 + (1 - x)*0
0.2275 = x*0.3073
x = 74%.

The break even point is when you expect to win the main pot 74% of the time.

[citanul]

read the faq for the general philosophy on fold ace preflop questions on this forum.

citanul