Fold AA Preflop?

[imported_legoman]

Ok, this is purely hypothetical, but is AA a fold in this situation:

200/400 blinds.
Hero: t700
BB: t3100
UTG: t3100
Button: t3100

UTG pushes, Button calls, you're sitting in the SB with AA.
If you fold, you're left with 500 chips and guaranteed ITM. The stacks will be 500, 2700, 6800, giving you $114 of EV (assuming 50+5).

If you call, you'll win around 2/3 times. (Against random hands it's 70%, but the button calling the push means he has some kind of hand -> lower win %).
If you win, the stacks will be 2500, 2700, and 4800. EV of $154. And if you lose, then you bust and EV = 0. So the EV of a call is 2/3 of $154, or $102.

Also, a fold lowers variance.