Lots Goin' On with A4s

[private joker]

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Flop is standard.



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Is it? Everyone loves the flop call, but I'm not crazy about our reverse implied odds if we're outkicked. I'm not sure the backdoor flush adds enough value to our hand to continue with TPNK on a board with 3 broadways and 2 hearts. What are you doing when the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits the turn? Raising and calling a 3-bet, then folding if you don't fill up?

I think some consideration can be giving to folding.

[einbert]

I hate your turn raise, I can't see why everyone is saying it is standard. It basically accomplishes no purpose. It never folds out a better hand or a hand that is drawing live, it often simply makes it more expensive for us to draw and we are getting three-bet a decent amount of the time here. If we hit our flush on the river we are getting checked to instead of probably bet into, meaning we win 1 or 2 bets instead of 2 or 3 or 4. UTG got called on *that* board by three players and still bet out on *that* board into three players. He has you beat like 90% of the time here, maybe more. Best case scenario is that he also has an ace with no kicker and you are splitting the pot with him, but I see him checking that hand on the flop or turn an awful lot.

I would like to hear an explanation of what you think the turn raise accomplishes and what range of hands you put UTG+1 on when he bets the turn. Specifically what in the world can you beat that he might hold.

I thought it was standard.
We have 20 outs to improve against AT,AJ on the turn.

9 to the flush, 8 to a halve (1[A],2[Q],3[9],2[K]),and 3 to 2pr.

We're already freerolling every other Ace.

We have outs against every possible hand out there.

I think the raise is for value.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought it was standard.
We have 19 outs to improve against AT,AJ on the turn.

9 to the flush, 7 to a halve and 3 to 2pr.

We're already freerolling every other Ace.

We have outs against every possible hand out there.

I think the raise is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Kwaz,

If we are freerolling every time, the raise is great of course. Because we can never have the worst hand, so we should raise the turn until we are all in. But the times that we are freerolling, when weighted with all the times that we are behind (frequently far behind), add up to a pretty serious equity deficit. Also considering the fact that if we are freerolling against another naked ace playing the board for kickers, it doesn't seem very likely that a loose and fishy player would bet into us on this board after getting called on the flop in three spots. It seems to me that we are much more likely significantly behind. Even with the middle player in between who, yes, is most likely drawing, I don't think we have 33% equity overall in this pot. UTG+1, who was stated as being "loose and fishy", which I take to mean fairly passive after the flop, has to have the lion's share of equity by far in this pot to bet the turn on this quite intimidating board. I think he just has two pair or better way too often, and he will definitely have JT or aces up a high percentage of the time, against both of which we are drawing very slim (more than a 4-1 dog, with additional reverse implied odds if we improve to a second best hand on the river which will be often).

Sure our hand is pretty and the turn is a really good card for us. But just because our hand has improved and there is a third player in who we are most likely ahead of, doesn't mean that raising is right. We have to strongly consider this passive player who continues firing despite the scary board and multiple players remaining in the pot. These players don't play this way with naked aces--if so it is only rarely. I still would like to see a reasonable range of hands for him that doesn't have us crushed the vast majority of the time.

Good luck,
einbert

[brettbrettr]

I agree with Einbert here. I don't necessarily think that we're behind 90% of the time, but certainly a significant amount of the time. I also really like the idea of getting in two bets on a good river rather than the one. Yes, its the same as getting them in on the turn but there you don't have all the risk of being three-bet.

If I were you I'd play post-flop in a call-call-call type way. If I were me I'd raise the river because it would have been a club.

[einbert]

Hi Brett,

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I don't necessarily think that we're behind 90% of the time, but certainly a significant amount of the time

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Just to clarify, I meant that I think of the times we aren't splitting the pot currently, we are behind 90% of the time. And I still think that that is pretty accurate.

Good luck,
einbert

[brettbrettr]

Good clarification. Yes, I think in that sense it might even be higher than 90%.

[badbill7]

i guess with implied we have odds to call on flop.i think we are getting about four outs at this point. i might even go with a three but i guess i still peel. I like the turn raise but i dont know if it was the best play. Please explain why this has a positive ev if it does at all. I think we probably check fold river. dont see tighty as calling two cold on turn without having an ace and us outkicked at the very least

[TheDelChop]

Why are you not raising the river, you obviously have the best hand.

Dont you often see players with hands like K-10 bet cause they have a pair and a straight draw? When he board pairs on the end and you didn't raise the flop, I can see him thinking his pair is the best hand on the river. I doubt he has A-K, A-Q, or A-9, as you would have heard about it on the turn, so if he has an Ace you are probably splitting anyways.

If he turned up K-10 I woudl be pissed about missing a value raise.

[einbert]

Honestly, I'm not sure but I think the flop is awfully close to a fold. I haven't played full much in a long time, but it seems like we are beaten without much chance of drawing out the vast majority of the time. And the pot isn't really large. A loose and passive player bets out on what I consider to be an intimidating flop into four players, and two of them have called already, both of which could easily be ahead of us. I don't see us being ahead here except very rarely, and of the times we are ahead we are going to get draw out on extremely often. A4s is a tough hand to play even from the button, and this is a tough decision, but I think that I lean towards a fold here.