Using Poker Tracker and losing

steelcmg · #1 11-15-2004, 12:30 AM

Ive been playing poker for about 1 year and just got poker tracker about 2 months ago. Before using poker tracker i was a consistant winner playing lower limit cash games and SnGs i even would get to the final 20 or so in tourneys. Ever since i started using poker tracker i have been doing horrible. My bank account has dropped alot and i cant seem to figure out why. I tryied to compare my numbers to others who posted on here and they seem to be close. I only have about 6000 hands imported for cash games.

I feel like i take to many bad beats. I could play NL games for so 2 hours and be up 20 or 30$ and lose it all on 1 hand. And as soon as i feel like im getting back on top of the game winning again i go on a losing streak. I understand that there is times when u hit rock bottem in poker and things just go bad for months. Im wondering if this could be something normal and shouldnt worry about it. Or do i really need to figure out whats wrong with my game. Or if i should just try switching poker sites to see what happens. I would really like some searous advice here from people who have been playing for a long time and have gone through the same things.

PS> Im sure there are many grammer and spelling mistakes on here since my microsoft word isnt working.

mistrpug · #2 11-15-2004, 12:55 AM

Basically everyone will tell you that 6000 hands is a very small sample, and it's very possible that you're having a bad run as part of your normal variance.

It's also possible that you're just not that good. Not trying to be a smart ass, just saying it's possible. Play more. Use PT to improve your game. See what happens. Also read the forums and post some hands you're unsure about .

Good luck.

senjitsu · #3 11-15-2004, 05:44 AM

Well, I assume what youre saying is that you've had 10 months of profitable play, but you've been losing a lot the past 2 months. Could it be a bad run? Sure. But, while 6000 hands isnt a huge sample, it is big enough so that mere statistical anomaly isn't the most likely explanation.

I know a lot of good players who play online, and the single most common mistake I see is when they write off medium-term downward trends as purely the result of bad beats and variance.

My first piece of advice is to use the stats you have to figure out how much you've lost, then figure out where the money is going. If you're down $1000, and you've lost $1500 to your all-in opponents catching runner runner or hitting two outers, then chalk it up to what it is, a statistical anomaly.

But frequently, its not that easy to explain. Look where your money is going and try to figure out what kind of hand seems to be costing you a lot and not making you a lot. Do you often lose pots to kicker wars? Do you spend a lot of money defending second pair with an overkicker?

Of course, those only examples off the top of my head -- but the point is that you're making a mistake if you're chalking up your online losses to bad beats without _very_ carefully looking at your hand histories and trying to find some other cause.

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Ive been playing poker for about 1 year and just got poker tracker about 2 months ago. Before using poker tracker i was a consistant winner playing lower limit cash games and SnGs i even would get to the final 20 or so in tourneys. Ever since i started using poker tracker i have been doing horrible. My bank account has dropped alot and i cant seem to figure out why. I tryied to compare my numbers to others who posted on here and they seem to be close. I only have about 6000 hands imported for cash games.

I feel like i take to many bad beats. I could play NL games for so 2 hours and be up 20 or 30$ and lose it all on 1 hand. And as soon as i feel like im getting back on top of the game winning again i go on a losing streak. I understand that there is times when u hit rock bottem in poker and things just go bad for months. Im wondering if this could be something normal and shouldnt worry about it. Or do i really need to figure out whats wrong with my game. Or if i should just try switching poker sites to see what happens. I would really like some searous advice here from people who have been playing for a long time and have gone through the same things.

PS> Im sure there are many grammer and spelling mistakes on here since my microsoft word isnt working.

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Reef · #4 11-15-2004, 06:37 AM

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I only have about 6000 hands imported for cash games.

I feel like i take to many bad beats.

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small sample size, probably just a bad run. Replay hands to check if your bad beat theory is correct or if you might have played a little subpar those 6k.

mistrpug · #5 11-15-2004, 08:30 AM

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But, while 6000 hands isnt a huge sample, it is big enough so that mere statistical anomaly isn't the most likely explanation.

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This is wrong. It's so small that a bad run over this many hands isn't even really a "statistical anomaly", it's just a normal fluctuation.

The only way to tell if you're on a bad run or if you're just not that good is to play a lot more hands. Whether or not your loses are due to bad luck or bad play, you do need to be analyzing your play and trying to improve. You should always be doing this.

senjitsu · #6 11-15-2004, 06:38 PM

Well, I suppose it depends on how big the fluctuation is. From the posters initial post, I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that he had been doing very well over ten months, and very poorly over the subsequent 2 months (which was the period for the sample of cash games). By definition, the final two month period is anomalous.

If you are a net positive player over 5 other groups of 6000 hands, then I would think you would want to look at this group and see where you're going wrong. Obviously, if you think its better math, you are welcome to write all your losses as bad beats sans analysis. Indeed, if you're playing at any of the sites I frequent, I encourage it!

jc

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But, while 6000 hands isnt a huge sample, it is big enough so that mere statistical anomaly isn't the most likely explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. It's so small that a bad run over this many hands isn't even really a "statistical anomaly", it's just a normal fluctuation.

The only way to tell if you're on a bad run or if you're just not that good is to play a lot more hands. Whether or not your loses are due to bad luck or bad play, you do need to be analyzing your play and trying to improve. You should always be doing this.

[/ QUOTE ]

CrackerZack · #7 11-15-2004, 08:48 PM

I read it on RGP. Try switching to pokerstat, its less rigged I hear.

Louie Landale · #8 11-15-2004, 08:57 PM

Its probably just a statistical fluctuation (or your previous results were). But its also possible that you are distracted by looking up the "stats" on these players and neglecting the thought processes that were letting you win before.

Try this: only check stats when you are not involved in a hand. Use the stats to subconsoulsy guide you.

- Louie

amulet · #9 11-16-2004, 12:48 AM

both 10 months of winning and 2 months of loosing are both to small a sample to know if you are a winning player at your limit. however, the 10 month sample is much more likely to be correct. we all have bad runs, that is part of poker. try taking a little time off and thinking about the game. reread your poker books, you should always be reading - winning or not. play only one game at a time for a while, and try only using pt after you play. you could also move down in a limit for a while, get your game together, get some wins, then come back to the original limit.