AK makes TPTK: Drawing Virtually Dead?

[BoxTree]

Commerce 20/40, 9-handed

Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Hero raises, Fold, Fold, MP2 cold-calls, Fold, Fold, Button cold-calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop (4 players, 8 sb): A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Button folds, BB folds, Hero...?

Notes on MP2: She's a highly predictable, very tight player (but cold-calls too much) who is very rarely over-aggressive. I'd say there's just shy of a 100% chance that she has A7s, A4s, 77, 44, or AK. She wouldn't 3-bet the flop with any other holding.

Given that there are six ways for her to have a set and three ways for her to have two-pair (Ad7d, Ad4d, Ah7h), should I see the turn getting 14:1? If I catch an 8-Q on the turn, should I see the river getting 8.5:1 to improve to a better two-pair?

I feel like I should be folding this flop. Too weak?

Against a tougher opponent who knows that I'm likely raising the flop with AK-AJ and possibly raising with TT-KK, I'm sticking with this hand and may get fancy later on. A tougher player could 3-bet me with TT/JJ, AQs/AJs, or perhaps a straight or flush draw. But MP2 would do no such thing. Her 3-bet says, "I can beat everything but AA."

[spoohunter]

It is important to note you do not have the K of spades, and the ace is a spade. These are factors that make folding not so horrible.

[nate1729]

You answered your own question. If that's your read and you're confident of it, fold.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
It is important to note you do not have the K of spades, and the ace is a spade. These are factors that make folding not so horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have no backdoor outs; my only hidden outs are runner-runner 88-QQ if MP2 has two-pair. But I'm wondering if this fold is "not so horrible" or "entirely correct based on my read."

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
You answered your own question. If that's your read and you're confident of it, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Confirmation bias! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[cbragado]

Is it possible that she's testing you with AQ, AJ, AT? She may be putting you on a flush draw, where she wants to make you pay to draw. There is an outside chance she could be making a play with the flush draw as well.

If your read is good then fold, but I'd probably call her down unless another spade hit the board and she continued betting.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is important to note you do not have the K of spades, and the ace is a spade. These are factors that make folding not so horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have no backdoor outs; my only hidden outs are runner-runner 88-QQ if MP2 has two-pair. But I'm wondering if this fold is "not so horrible" or "entirely correct based on my read."

[/ QUOTE ]

Math solves all your problems. Weight your collective outs, and see if you have enough. What you should be asking yourself is how sure is your read? Don't tell us, it doesn't matter, and we can't tell you. But think about it.

[Fillamoore]

For simplicity sakes, lets assume the chance that she has a set of 4's or 7's and loses to you having runner runner cancels out evenly with the probability that she does have some other hand. So now its just math...if she has a set we lose, if she has two pair, we may have some outs, lets see. Well, first of all, we're dead 67% of the time. We improve to two pair on turn just about 1 in every 15 tries, or 14 to 1 against roughly. So, if we somehow KNEW that she had two pair, which we dont and which she wont 67% of the time (which is a lot) its about a break even play (not counting the implied odds of course). Now the question comes, are my chances of catching a "good" card on the turn (8-Q) and then backing into higher two pair on river good enough to make this a profitable play? I dont think so and i dont think we need any more math to realize this. If the decision were closer, say 40% two pair and 60% set...then maybe. Given everything we've said here, i think the most reasonable play is call 1 sb on take one off hoping to catch a K. Fold unimproved.
(note this seems INCREDIBLY weak tite and i would only make this move if i was as certain about my read as the villian is)