What extent to use pot odds/probability in a tournament

[marcz908]

I wasnt sure which section to post this in. Obviously it makes sense to use pot odds/probability in a tournament. But what about this scenerio. Someone puts you all in. You're getting 4 to 1 on your money, but your a 3 to 1 dog. This is normally a call you would make, but if you do, your tournament life is over, the life of your entire tournament is based ONLY on a 25% chance.

I personally think that these calls should not be made early on, but later on when theres fewer players, and the blinds are huge and everyones fighting to stay alive.

Opinions?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Please come up with a scenario where you would *know* that you were a 3:1 dog to the range of hands that would put you in.

[marcz908]

[ QUOTE ]
Please come up with a scenario where you would *know* that you were a 3:1 dog to the range of hands that would put you in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having trouble thinking of a *good* example. I just wanted to know if its a good idea to put your tournament on the line on a gamble/longshot if your getting correct pot odds. But for a specific example (using different numbers):

You hold:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The flop:
10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Both players contributed 500 preflop (may be a bit wreckless for QKs) for 1000. You oponent bets 500, to call your all in and your getting 3 to 1.

Your on an open ended nut straight draw and a flush draw.

Your putting your oponent on a high pocket pair perhaps.

8 cards get you your straight, 9 spades left minus 2 that are in the 8 cards already counted, you have 15 outs. You about a 2.1 to 1 dog.

If anyone knows what I'm trying to say and has a better example, lets hear it!

[marcz908]

I think a better subject for this thread would have been:

What extent should pot odds/probability determine your tournament life?

[gumpzilla]

In your example, you're not a 2:1 dog, you're basically even money to win the pot against KK.

As for the rest, you should read up in the multi-table tournament forum. The short answer is that early on, you should take these +chip EV bets (unless you think you're one of the best players in the tournament, and then it's iffy but you should probably still do it), but later on it's often correct to pass them up because surviving even just a couple more orbits can mean substantial changes in your prize money. In other words, you have it backwards.

[pzhon]

It sounds like you are looking for some way to rationalize this sort of fold. You should almost always make these calls. Many people don't. This is an exploitable weakness, and good tournament players exploit it all of the time.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

You hold:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The flop:
10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Both players contributed 500 preflop (may be a bit wreckless for QKs) for 1000. You oponent bets 500, to call your all in and your getting 3 to 1.

Your on an open ended nut straight draw and a flush draw.

Your putting your oponent on a high pocket pair perhaps.

8 cards get you your straight, 9 spades left minus 2 that are in the 8 cards already counted, you have 15 outs. You about a 2.1 to 1 dog.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is a ridiculously bad example.

First, if you have 15 outs on the flop, you are usually a favorite or very close.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=931096
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.509
T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.491

Second, kings and queens may be outs.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=931101
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.708
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.292

Third, you aren't considering that KQ unimproved may be ahead.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=931104
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.764
8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.236

You should put your opponent on a range of hands. Know your odds. You should usually make the play that averages the most chips against your opponent's range of hands. On the bubble, or when the prizes are increasing rapidly, you can be slightly more conservative, but most peopele overdo this and apply it out of context.

It sounds like you are happy to fold a hand that is a favorite against the range of hands your opponent has even when you are getting great odds. If you have to hit top pair or better to call a 1/2 pot bet, you're playing very badly. You are going to get run over by aggressive players.