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#1
04-09-2005, 04:21 PM
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Long Run Question
How many plays would be considered the "long run" in sports betting, by that meaning I was nearly 100% sure I was a winning/losing player? Thanks.
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#2
04-09-2005, 08:33 PM
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Re: Long Run Question
A full season in each sport ought to tell you enough. THere are stories of winning sports bettors having losing years, but not many.
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#3
04-09-2005, 11:26 PM
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Re: Long Run Question
It depends on your win percentage (Unless you're talking baseball, then it's more complicated). But if you have your current win pct. and the number of games you have at this win pct, then you can create a lower bound using a binomial confidence interval at 99%. As long as this lower bound is above 52.4% you can then be "sure".
If your lower bound is still below the 52.4% you can then plug-in the number of games you'll need to make it statistically significant. Hope this helps.
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#4
04-09-2005, 11:56 PM
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Re: Long Run Question
[ QUOTE ]
A full season in each sport ought to tell you enough. THere are stories of winning sports bettors having losing years, but not many. [/ QUOTE ] A full season of what? Baseball has 162 games, football has 16.
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#5
04-10-2005, 12:35 AM
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Re: Long Run Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A full season in each sport ought to tell you enough. THere are stories of winning sports bettors having losing years, but not many. [/ QUOTE ] A full season of what? Baseball has 162 games, football has 16. [/ QUOTE ] games per team, but many more betting opps. 5000 + betting opps in baseball season, football has more prop bets (less games total)
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