Low Ceiling vs High Ceiling-SNG strategy(long)

[lastchance]

At Pokerstars. :P

[Nick M]

totally ahhaha NH [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[dmmikkel]

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When the cards don't want you to win, then you have variance. And you have no say in this either. This is Low Ceiling. No range. No way to avoid variance in any way.

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No way to get around variance no matter how you play. Some forms have lesser varians, other more variance.

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you can play your opponents cards and take EV that does not belong to you.

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This makes no sense to me. At any given situation in any form of poker, there's one move that has the most EV. It's the move that make you the most money in this and every future hand. How can you get more EV than max EV?

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Low Ceiling takes EV that does not belong to you sure, the blinds

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Don't get this either. It's +EV to steal blinds. I know that and therefor the EV belongs to me.

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In Low Ceiling play the cards break even. This means the ROI for a person is not unlimited. There's only a set amount of ROI one can achieve by play Low Ceiling poker. You can do much worse but you can never do better.

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Cards break even in any game. Some games you just play them differently. Some say cards might not matter if you can outplay your opponent, but it does. If you can make it +EV calling his raise with 72o, then you're just playing 72o better than your opponent.

And ROI is never unlimited in any game. It is impossible. Unlimited ROI would mean you're getting infinite odds (obviously a good bet)

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To sum up what I think.

I think you somehow don't get what kind of math lies behind any form of poker because you keep talking about EV that doesn't belong to you (or EV that doesn't really exist) and unlimited ROI.

Basicly I think your biggest mistake is thinking like this:

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There is just one problem with it, your results are completely and totally dictated by the cards and the odds

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You're basicly saying some forms of poker are not dictated by cards and odds. Absolutely everything in poker is math and odds.

You may say it's a people game, but reads are nothing but numbers and variables. You may know what he has. You may know what he thinks you have. You may think you know what he thinks you have. Still it's 100% math. It's math that's so complex no one will ever master it 100%, but that doesn't mean it isn't math.

A move you make that is against all books, but that you make based on instinct and feeling, can still be mathematically proven to be the correct move.

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Edit: no point what so ever but this was my 109th post and i play the 109s. wee [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Better move up before my 215th post (what happens after that i don't dare think about :P)

[Nick M]

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No way to get around variance no matter how you play. Some forms have lesser varians, other more variance.

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in my post I actually said this.

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This is where you can DEFEND against variance.

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i also replied to another question about this saying

In my post I write...


Quote:
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You don't just get to play your cards, you can play your opponents cards and take EV that does not belong to you. High Ceiling play has range. It doesn't just steal blinds it steals POTS. Low Ceiling takes EV that does not belong to you sure, the blinds. But High Ceiling is involved in the action and can take advantage of the action.


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I probably should have been more specific. What I say here is variance is determined comepletely and totally by losing hands. If you never lose a hand there will be no variance. That means that if you can take pots that you would otherwise lose if you should down, you're defending against variance. I think LC preflop defends against variance because you steal blinds. Blinds that you can win without having the best hand. But like I said in my post, HC play takes not just blinds, when you switch to LC, but it takes POTS.


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This makes no sense to me. At any given situation in any form of poker, there's one move that has the most EV. It's the move that make you the most money in this and every future hand. How can you get more EV than max EV?


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yes there is one move that makes you the most EV possible. I agree. I am just saying a lot of those don't happen pre flop


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Don't get this either. It's +EV to steal blinds. I know that and therefor the EV belongs to me.


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What I mean by EV that doesn't belong to me is EV won with the worst hand. Obvioulsy $EV can never be won by you with the worst hand.


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And ROI is never unlimited in any game. It is impossible. Unlimited ROI would mean you're getting infinite odds (obviously a good bet)


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in my post I write this.

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But what is the defense for a non set strategy???? High Ceiling play has no set defense. This is why ROI is unlimited...well in a sense. You could win every single SNG you play, that's the limit ahhaaha. But you understand.

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ROI is unlimited up to the point you are winning every single SNG. This is what I mean by unlimited.


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A move you make that is against all books, but that you make based on instinct and feeling, can still be mathematically proven to be the correct move.

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this is completely untrue. A play that makes your opponent THINK he has the worst hand, has absolutely nothing to do with Math.

[lastchance]

You can't win every single SNG, even if you're Phil Ivey with the game theoretic knowledge that Chris Ferguson/David Sklansky has.

Like I said, if your opponents play optimally, your ROI over an infinite period of time is not going to be higher than 0%. It is impossible.

[Nick M]

it's not impossible, it just can't be done by anyone on this planet. This means that the sky is the limit when you play HC strategy. You make the rules. Your skill decides your ROI, not JUST the odds and/or the cards.

[lastchance]

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it's not impossible, it just can't be done by anyone on this planet. This means that the sky is the limit when you play HC strategy. You make the rules. Your skill decides your ROI, not JUST the odds and/or the cards.

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No, this is completely and absurdly wrong. A perfect poker player cannot win every single SNG. It is impossible, because you will have KK when your opponent has AA. You will be card-dead. Like it is impossible to beat the big game for more than 1 BB/Hour, it is impossible to beat SNGs over a certain ROI, depending on how lousy your opponents are.

A perfect player's ROI is strictly decided by how bad that player's opponents are.

You can't beat at Tic-Tac-Toe. It's the same with poker. There is optimal play, and depending how close to it your opponent plays, you can't beat them for a higher ROI than is possible.

[Moonsugar]

Your ROI can only negative and in a magnitude equal the rake, not 0%.

[Matt Walker]

I don't see why low ceiling play and high ceiling play are mutually exclusive as you define them. Can't you play one with deep stacks and the other with less than 10x stacks? I think thats what most players on here are doing.

[Nick M]

In my post I say this

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High Ceiling is poker played on both the preflop level and the post flop level.

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this implies that HC can play LC but not the other way around. A square is a rectangle but a rectangle is not a square. I want to play like a rectangle. hahaha