raising scare river, maybe i'm bluffing, i don't know

I don't know what came over me. At the river, I was thinking this guy has a Jack. This feels like FPS, but he doesn't like to go to showdown, so I busted a move. Did I go crazy? I'm not sure about my turn call either. I didn't have a plan for what to do on the river. Maybe that explains my random river raise.

BB is (104 hands) 47.1 5.8 27.8 af 0.8

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises?</font>

[ReadyEddie]

Yeah i think you went overboard. this guy is .8 AF over 104 hands... i dont think hes betting nothing here. the turn brings a possible straight on the board, and the river completes the flush. not to mention there is still 2 overcards to your nines, i just dont think that you are ahead here and i think BB is fishy enough that he is not gonna fold to river raises. based on his stats i'd fold the turn.

[krimson]

Remember that a low aggression factor also indicates that a player does not fold that often. i don't think we have much fold equity, and would just call.

[ReadyEddie]

really? i did not know that. I'm not at home so i cant whip open PT but how does folding affect AF exactly?

AF is calculated as (Raise % + Bet %) / (Call %)

Therefore, the more someone calls the lower his/her aggression factor is. Conversely, using a raise or fold strategy would result in an very very high aggression factor.

I think you definitely picked the wrong opponent against who to execute this play because both his VPIP and AF strongly suggest he isn't folding once he gets to the river.

His low WTSD% is also skewed by the fact that he is seeing so many flops with bad starting hands and releasing them on the flop. I'd predict that once he gets to the river and bets he sure as hell isn't folding a better hand to a raise like ever. I'd just call the river because I can't stand donkbets and its bad for image, but maybe folding wouldn't be too terrible with a read.

[ReadyEddie]

thanks, good to know