Should I have been in this hand still?

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm if you discount your 3 ace outs (which I think is wise) then you are looking at 23 to 1 to runner runner a flush and 10 to 1 to hit the inside straight on the next card. You got 7 to 1 on your first cold call and 9 to 1 on your second. Looks like you made the same mistake twice on the same street

[/ QUOTE ]

the second call getting 9:1 is definitely justified with the gutshot and bdfd. 1/11 + 1/24 > 1/10.

the first call is thin, but I think implied odds can justify a call in the right situation. If you think sb there is a good chance of sb reraising then it's a great fold, so making this call against an overaggressive sb is bad.

I don't like raising this, I think you're getting a free card fairly rarely here. It's hard enough to get the free card in 3/6 against just one opponent who likes his hand.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I should know this but how many outs do we count a backdoor flush draw as?

[/ QUOTE ]

1.5 -- assuming nut flush draw with no pairs on board.

[jay1313]

I am confused on your odds figuring, I have the hero getting 6.5 to 1 on the first cold call (13SB to 2SB) and, (probably assuming SB continues) 10 to 1 on the second. With 5.5 outs and implied odds,I can see making this call. I probably fold this on the flop but I think the math is there.

[mosta]

factor in reraise probabilities. say 50% chance of 3-bet and 25% chance of 4-bet (just to make an estimate). then we pay
2.75 sb's to win 14.5 sb's. a little over 5:1. I don't think the raiser from the blind being played at is the ideal scenario to chase a long shot draw in.

edit: well a little over 5:1 is actually a good price. maybe it's a decent call. I would have folded on instinct.

[jskills]

I'd be folding the flop for the first 2 bets you had to cold call. You clearly don't have odds to draw to the gutshot.

[mosta]

I accidently divided twice the first time I posted and botched that number.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
factor in reraise probabilities. say 50% chance of 3-bet and 25% chance of 4-bet (just to make an estimate). then we pay
2.75 sb's to win 14.5 sb's. a little over 5:1. I don't think the raiser from the blind being played at is the ideal scenario to chase a long shot draw in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely get what you're saying -- considering your effective odds here is key, and I think I like your vote for a fold. But I think your estimates are WAY too high here, I'd say it's closer to something like 15 and 5, but I just made those numbers up. Most tables just don't cap the flop 1/4 times there's a raise, IMHO.

[chief444]

I'd 3-bet. It's close. I think folding here is giving up a little bit though.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have been in this hand still?

[/ QUOTE ]

At first glance, I thought no. But you have 6-7 outs and are getting 6.5:1 on the first flop call. The second call is a no brainer, as is the turn call.

What makes this close is the risk of a 3-bet from the SB. If you think this is high, then muck it.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be folding the flop for the first 2 bets you had to cold call. You clearly don't have odds to draw to the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are not his only outs.