$4500 Large Caps Hand - Long with CashEV and ChipEV

[Lloyd]

This was the pivotal hand at the end of last night's Large Caps tournament. I apologize for not having the exact info but the numbers are pretty close. There's been a lot of discussion about ChipEV and CashEV so I threw in that analysis as well.

Down to 3 players:

1st Place ~$7,150
2nd Place ~$4,875
3rd Place ~$2,925

Button (Me) T220,000
SB T250,000
BB (Villian) T180,000

Typical shorthanded action with pretty aggressive play. Blinds are 5000/10000.

I'm dealt 88 on the button and make it T25,000. This was my standard raise at this level. SB folds and BB pushes all-in.

I have him covered by about T40,000 but it's still a large portion of my stack and I'm sitting in really good chip position and am confident that I'm the best player at the table. At this stage of the tournament, I could have made that raise with a wide range of hands, possibly any 2 cards. Therefore, he can make the re-raise with a wide range of hands. I figured that he could have 22-QQ, Ax, and any two painted cards. I didn't think KK or AA was possible because of the size of the raise. If it were me (and thinking like this is always a danger) I would have either flat called or made a normal raise with those hands to increase the chance of getting extra chips. I went into the tank and reasoned that I was probably a 3-2 favorite over the range of hands and I called. I knew that if I won the hand I would be in excellent position to win the tournament. I immediately move up $2k in prize money and would be up against the weakest player of the three.

He had KQ and connected with the board crippling me. I wound up coming back up to T100,000 but the same guy connected again with AQ to beat my pocket 5s. No regrets. I think I made the right decision but would certainly appreciate any comments from others.

While I didn't do an actual EV calculation at the time, I certainly was thinking about it instinctively. Here are the two calculations respectively:

Assumptions

1) I was up against 22-QQ, Ax, any two painted
2) Against those hands I am a 60-40 favorite
3) I was the best player on the table and have a slight edge because of that
4)
If I call and win the hand, chances of coming in:
1st - 70%
2nd - 30%

If I call and lose the hand, chances of coming in:
1st - 7%
2nd - 9%
3rd - 84%

4) If I fold, chances of coming in:
1st - 33%
2nd - 36%
3rd - 31%

ChipEV

If I call: .60*405000 + .40*40,000 = 259,000
If I fold: 195,000

CashEV

If I call:
(.60*.70*7150)+(.60*.30*4875)+(.40*.07*7150)+(.40* .09*4875)+(.40*.84*2925) = 5,239

If I fold:
(.33*7150)+(.36*4875)+(.31*2925) = 5,021

Certainly, all of these numbers are based on assumptions which could be off. From a ChipEV perspective it's a pretty clear call. But from a CashEV perspective it's much closer. It's still a call but it's probably within the margin of error for the assumptions I've used.

The key to the CashEV figures is that I assume I'm the best player and, therefore, have a marginal edge. If I didn't make that assumption it would probably be a clear call.

Any thoughts on this? I'm especially interested in how people make these decisions in the heat of the moment, and whether or not their process is different when playing online (with access to various tools) or onland (when you've got only your brain).

Thanks!

[ghettorat]

Making these calls in the heat of the moment, is part intuition, part math and part reading your opponent. Making these calls correctly in the heat of the moment, is what seperates good players from great players. Sort of like in sports, its the Derek Jeter/A-Rod, Tom Brady/Peyton Manning argument.

[Che]

Lloyd-

For future reference, doing the calculations is easier if you eliminate "sunk gain" (i.e. the fact that you have all locked up third place money). Thus, first is worth $4225 and second $1950 while third is $0 in this case.

The numbers should be the same in the end, but the calculation is easier, and doing a reasonably accurate estimate in your head will actually be possible if you have above average mathematical skills. If not, quick button-pushing on a calculator can be done. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Based on your calculations, I don't see that either calling or folding would be wrong. I probably fold if short-handed play just started, though. However, if we've been duking it out for a while and neither player is commiting the ultimate short-handed sin (folding too much), I probably make my stand here.

Later,
Che

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]

2) Against those hands I am a 60-40 favorite


[/ QUOTE ]

did you calculate this out? if so, did you include that hands like AK are more likely than AA, ect?

[Che]

I forgot to mention it, but my method for calculating cashEV is also superior in another way: it makes it easier to correctly estimate the edge you are getting.

For example, your calculations showed that calling was better than folding by ~$200 relative to $EV's around $5000. Looks like a 4% edge.

However, the true $EV's are closer to $2000 so your edge is ~10%.

Calling looks a lot better now. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2) Against those hands I am a 60-40 favorite


[/ QUOTE ]

did you calculate this out? if so, did you include that hands like AK are more likely than AA, ect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Short answer: yes. And I confirmed my estimates with Poker Calculator and they were surpisingly identical.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I forgot to mention it, but my method for calculating cashEV is also superior in another way: it makes it easier to correctly estimate the edge you are getting.

For example, your calculations showed that calling was better than folding by ~$200 relative to $EV's around $5000. Looks like a 4% edge.

However, the true $EV's are closer to $2000 so your edge is ~10%.

Calling looks a lot better now. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Che. Here is the revised calculation using "your" method:

CashEV

If I call:
(.60*.70*4225)+(.60*.30*1950)+(.40*.07*4225)+(.40* .09*1950) = 2,314

If I fold:
(.33*4225)+(.36*1950) = 2,096

Certainly, the advantage is much more significant (and accurate) doing it this way. So would you base your decision on this calculation solely? Obviously, the key is still the assumptions but they are what they are.

[bads33d]

At best you have a overpair to his smaller pocket pair (which most people come over the top with an all in at this stage of the tournament) or its a coin flip.

If your the best player at the table, I would fold, you still have 195,000 chips left, and have around 20x the big blind.

I would pick a better spot.

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]
At best you have a overpair to his smaller pocket pair (which most people come over the top with an all in at this stage of the tournament) or its a coin flip.

If your the best player at the table, I would fold, you still have 195,000 chips left, and have around 20x the big blind.

I would pick a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would recommend reading through the calculations

[poolshark]

can some one please tell me why this tournament is called 'Large Caps' - or is it just a name?