Is this bearish for you ????

The 'wild card' is the consumer, who is in my opinion is in dire

straights. Over extended, under educated and with diminishing

earning and saving. This economy would be nothing without the

consumer who so far patriotically buying any garbage "made in china". Globalization is bad for the US economy as we don't

manufacture anything but bad movies in Hollywood. It was mentioned that we run a surplus. yes we had a surplus in California - it was wiped out by bad management and borderline

theft of resources - read "powercrisis". Similarily the US

surplus either will be spent on military build-up or just spent

by Congress on other nonense, like "buying friends" in the

middle-east for the "coalition" [img]/images/wink.gif[/img]

I know many have been talking doom and gloom of the economy

for many years without any consequence. It was similar to talking

about terrorist attach on US soil. Impossible many cried out.

US Intelligence will not let it happen. Terror and economic gloom

is not all different. Our "economic strength" is mainly smoke

and mirror statistics coming out of Washington. It's like saying

inflation is x without food and energy - who really needs food

and energy ? Remember you optimist - there are Lies, Big Lies and

statistics.

Just remember Jack, people around the world vote for the best economies and the best returns with the strongest voice possible...their money. If you think the whole world is stupid and these trillions of dollars in money flows are just stupid people blindly leading into bankruptcy, you keep thinking that. In the meantime I am going to go on living my life like most other people. A little worried, but still believing that this is the intellectual (undereducated???) and financial titan of the world. Other people can have claim to best clothing manufacturing or best toy production...if you really think we need to do things like that here once again you are a flat out fool. If you want to see poverty and struggles, and above all inefficient economies go somewhere else. Just about every other country in the world has those problems much worse than here. You say we are optomistic and patriotic, but the reality is people like you for some reason feel compelled to worry about the worst and do things to help bring it on. Just think about this, what if you are right? What is your reward for living in an economy in shambles? Maybe you saved your money, but what good is having money in a deflationary economy where you can't get a job? What are you trying to "win" here?

The rich folk in this world like the Swiss, US and Europe.

If you think only the US has inflow of capital - you are an

idiot ! Have you heard of a little country of Swizerland ?

The rest of the world (like Japan and other Asian countries)

may be worst off in terms of capital inflow. But we are meeting them in the basement. Soon. Foreign investment means nothing to the average joe shmoe. I will reiterate - the biggest pull of the US "miracle" aside the statistcal smokes and mirrors *WAS* the consumer. This was ok for a while. *NOW* The consumer is being bled to death. The multinational corporations mistreat the US consumer and expect them to buy and buy more. If you are a programmer or EE - they will import "slave labor" from india. If you are a doctor you will be working for Insurance companies and trial lawyers. If you are a factory worker - you can go to flip burgers. If you are in any position other than lawyer or politician or very rich - you are a doomed. Forget about starting a business. Red tape and Government idiocy will make

in impossible. I know I have a Corporation.(I am closing it)

To illustrate my point go on any web-site dealing with business

all you will find is MLM, scams, and hypes. Why, because that's

all there is out there !!!!

If you can't see this you are either a lawyer or you are stupid. It's a catch 22. We can't win. The 21st century is sadly belongs to China.

Tom,

I am talking about the very long term view. I don't care

about the immediate market. What has happened in the first

two years of the new millenium is a tell-tale.

As for trying to be contrarian...I can say the same thing

about all the ranting and raving of the economy. Most analyst

are bullish and preach that we have reached the bottom.

My theory is that we have or about to have killed the Goose

that layed the golden egg - the US consumer. Globalisation

and stockmarkets crash plus crazy spending habbits and disdain to

save are the three nails in the coffin.

Cute, well lets all go be farmers now like in history because Jack has figured out that world trade is killing us. Since world trade has begun in earnest the last 10 years, all I know is that our country had its most productive years ever! This so called recession people are worried about is all of about -0.5% GDP, about as mild as we will ever see. I am sorry to hear your business is not successful, but don't think for a minute that closing up the economy would have made you more successful. You are just kidding yourself if you believe that fewer potential customers, higher prices, and a less diverse economy would have been better for you or anyone else. Like all things in history, we must all change and adapt with the times and without a doubt no country in the world is better positioned or able to adapt with this one. If NAFTA directly cost 1,000,000 jobs (mostly low skill, but indirectly created about 10,000,000 new ones that can't specifically be pointed to, do you still think NAFTA is bad?

If NAFTA is a good or bad for the US, time will tell. I am not

sure how old you are and if you will indeed see these but I give

50 years or so and the US will look like Brasil. Highest crime

and highest poverty in the region. US has lots of resources in

it's personal wealth but we are pissing it away, and fast.

We already (and I sure this is news to you) have people with money leaving and making home elswhere. Did you know this ?

Net - we have influx of people, terrorsist and dead poor from

central america and asia and the rich Americans are bailing out.


The new generation now can hardly read after hight school and

the only job they can hope is Burger King. If nafta is a good thing it's becuse it created a trader class to peddle as wholesalers or retail chain to ignorant masses who buy any garbage. yes there is money to be made on the back of the consumer. Only thing, the consumer is getting broke - the trend is clear. What good is this kind of an economy ???? The immigrant

to this country who have the education and also the money, don't

shop like crazy. There is already some outcry that they are

"cheap" - like saving would be a bad thing. Imagine a downturn

like Japans in the US - we would need socialist hand outs because

most people are so broke.

I am talking about the long term. Time will tell and I am closing

this argument again becuse obvious we will not change each others

mind.

Good job, bill. You know you got 'em when their argument is reduced to "well, whatever". I'm glad that I followed the whole thread to get to that punchline. Thanks.


dangerous dan

bill had no arguments, his arguments were the same crap you keep

hearing from the fed and politicians. do you belive anything

politicians say - well you are dumb, my friend.

the saying; "time will tell" is very wise as none not even greenspan knows the future, this goes for you for billy bob and even Skalnsky. none knows what tomorrow will bring.

What I wrote is mostly not from the Fed or government, but you probably don't know what the Fed is anyways. Almost everything I wrote is from Economics 101 and 102, introduction to micro and macro economics. I am guessing you did take these college classes or will you claim I am ignorant without having a basic knowledge of the laws of economics? I know to people that predict doom anything that contradicts them is heresy and all the laws of things such as economics are made up. Keep believing that, fortunately common sense USUALLY prevails.