AKs get flush draw with big pot

9 handed

Villain 1 is 45/13 over 77 hands
villain 2 is 50/0 over 26 hands

villain 1 ( $13.00 )
hero ( $49.47 )
villain 2 ( $41.96 )

Dealt to hero A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB posts small blind $0.25, BB posts big blind $0.50, UTG posts big blind $0.50.

UTG checks, EP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold,
villain 1 raises $2.50, hero raises $10.50, villain 2 calls $10.50.
villain 1 raises $10.50 and is all-in, hero calls $2.50, villain 2 calls $2.50.

Flop ($40,75) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hero checks?

Should I push this flop? I figure my money is going in anyway, so why not try to get villain 2 to fold?

Results in white

<font color="white">

villain 2 bets $15.00.
hero calls $15.00.
** Dealing Turn ** 8h
hero checks.
villain 2 is all-In.
hero calls $13.96.
** Dealing River ** Jc
hero shows Ad, Kd
villain 2 shows Qc, Qd
villain 1 shows 9c, Kc
villain 2 wins $56.15 from side pot #1
villain 2 wins $39.52 from the main pot </font>

i c/r this flop allin.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361447
pokenum -h ad kd - jh jc -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 545 55.05 445 44.95 0 0.00 0.551
Jc Jh 445 44.95 545 55.05 0 0.00 0.449


or

pokenum -h ad kd - - 9c 9h -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 253 25.56 737 74.44 0 0.00 0.256
9c 9h 737 74.44 253 25.56 0 0.00 0.744

i think tt+ are more likely than 99, through default and given the action. c/r gets dead money plus you are prob a fav.

[ QUOTE ]
i c/r this flop allin.
i think tt+ are more likely than 99, through default and given the action. c/r gets dead money plus you are prob a fav.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow that's agressive! I like it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I don't think it works here. Villain 2 only has about 1 pot left, so a bet is going to commit him. If only stacks were deeper...

why dont you like it? You are a fav over most hands and he will probably call anyhow which is not a bad thing. you dont mind about being called, maybe some non pair hands bet if you check but fold to the allin-unlikely but may happen. given the action your money is in regardless.

If the stacks were deeper and he turn his cards over you want him to call, remember how often are tt+ folding on this flop, so if you push they call anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
why dont you like it? You are a fav over most hands and he will probably call anyhow which is not a bad thing. you dont mind about being called, maybe some non pair hands bet if you check but fold to the allin-unlikely but may happen. given the action your money is in regardless.

If the stacks were deeper and he turn his cards over you want him to call, remember how often are tt+ folding on this flop, so if you push they call anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-raising has no fold equity here. No way is he going going to fold JJ after he puts more money in. He only has another 1 pot left, so if he bets 1/2 pot he will call the rest. Pushing on the other hand might drive him out.

I would push the flop. You are pot commited and have a very strong hand.

[beavens]

also for the future - it's best to leave the results out until later.

pushing is good, but villian cold called a 21bb bet. he will most likely bet with his AQ or pp, why would you want him to fold a hand that can bet but not call an allin?

[ QUOTE ]
pushing is good, but villian cold called a 21bb bet. he will most likely bet with his AQ or pp, why would you want him to fold a hand that can bet but not call an allin?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think PP is most likely here. I am behind and I'd like him to fold. Given the stack sizes any sensible bet from him is going to commit him. I don't think there are any hands that can bet and not call allin.

my point is most pp that are calling a 21bb raise are not folding to a push, so why not let any non-pairs bet for you and you can push. you are not behind too far behind any pocket pair other than a set.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361501
pokenum -h ad kd - kh kc -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 465 46.97 525 53.03 0 0.00 0.470
Kc Kh 525 53.03 465 46.97 0 0.00 0.530

or

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361505
pokenum -h ad kd - ah ac -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 360 36.36 621 62.73 9 0.91 0.368
Ac Ah 621 62.73 360 36.36 9 0.91 0.632

given the money in there you should call even if he turns up AA.