#16
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Re: 5/10 TPTK meets resistance
I see no reason to raise the turn. You have no reason to think this guy is loose (he folds to small turn bets after calling small flop bets, no other information) He is either winning with two pair or a set, or he is losing with a worse ace. Your raise folds no hand better than yours and your raise folds basically every hand worse than yours. (unless the guy is overzealous with AQ) Calling is clearly the correct turn play.
The question posed by Etizzle was the river decision for 350. Villain only has 200-250 in his stack after this 350 bet is made (he is representing that he can't fold to a raise 'would he do that on purpose with a hand like AJ or AQ to make it seem like he is stronger than he is.... highly unlikely, but possible) This is a difficult decision... this 350 bet reaks of a value bet, but it very well could be with AQ, doubtful AJ. Only problem is, you called the turn, and it seems obvious that you are calling the river bet. I think even if he is betting AQ, he thinks he is most likely good. This river bet has to be called. Close your eyes, grit your teeth, and throw your 350 into the pot, knowing you are getting slightly better than 3-1. I think you win this hand 1 out of 4 times, maybe a bit more... making your 3-1 pot odds worth it. |
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