Questionable play.... you decide.

[JeanieJ]

This table is very aggressive. I've been here a few orbs and stats for the table are 26 VPIP and 15.5 PFR. Villian has raised a lot when folded to, and tried to steal on the small stack a number of times.

Villian stats are: 22.03/16.10/118 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t16205)
MP1 (t24592)
MP2 (t36738)
CO (t20768)
Button (t30550)
Hero (t20490)
BB (t5420)
UTG (t40203)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t3600</font>,Hero raises to 9600 <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t30475</font>, Hero calls.



I'm thinking I'm ahead here more often than I'm behind given the aggression of the opponent and the table in general.

Thoughts? Comments? All welcome.

[stokken]

Dont see raising no less then all as an option.
Most often I would flatt call, take a flopp, and evaluate.
It is a common situation when someone is pushing on your blind, but when you stand up you have to make a decission for the remainings of your chips.

It is similar to a situation where you are at button with an oesd or flush draw and you elect to bet when original raiser and two limpers have checked it to you and you are then faced with a reraise you have difficulties calling. Take the semifree flopp or push IMHO

But what do I know Stokken

Villain could've made this first raise with any two cards given his position on you, especially since he's very aggresive. I can understand the reraise and your hand is likely to be best right now. My question to you is if Villain has folded previously to a RR or did he call/push every time? What's your table-image?

Even if he pushed everytime I think your hand is way too vulnerable to call his all-in. Perhaps a stop and go was more in place?

[JeanieJ]

I don't know. Not to me at least he hasn't, then again I had never reraised him. I could tell he was trying to control the table. Other than myself, he also was the only decent money making player at the table.

Honestly, I think I'm ahead more times here than I'm behind. He could hold any two and I think I'm ahead often enough for this to be profitable, long term. (Is this thinking too far off?)

FYI- I was already in the money, 64 placed. and there was like 34 left.

I prefer a stop and go in this situation. I don't like to see 5 cards with a pair of 5's, don't think I have enough fingernails for that. When only one face card appears on the flop shove your chips in, if he's got overcards he probably folds and if he calls and the two low cards on the flop connect with your pair you have more outs to a redraw when he has an overpair.

But hey I'm no expert [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

You keep saying you are more often ahead than behind, but I think you are probably not considering the amount you are ahead and behind. You have a decent stack and are willing to gamble with the player who can break you as at best a couple of percent favourite.

According to PokerStove, you are around 60:40 to a random hand. However, does he really steal with a random hand? Or - is his hand likely to have some substance? Most steal hands are coin flips here.

Even if he plays over 50% of his cards (any pair, any suited, any broadway and then some non-suited cards like most Aces, Kings and a handful of Queens, Jacks, Tens and Nines), you are around about 11:9. To be honest, I would rather find a better situation for my chips. You have to give him pretty much an any two range to start getting any really significant advantage.

Even adding every 1, 2 or 3-gapper - you still are not a 60:40 favourite. (And I mean every, right down to 25o.) If we double his raising range on the button from his stats, from 16% to 32% of hands he is a slight favourite - though maybe I picked a favourable range.

Further, you say he is trying to run over the table. Does he want to do so so badly that he'll put over 60% of his stack at risk when you seem to have a hand you are interested in? Further, assuming he knows what he is doing to some extent - he has to know that you are going to call his push over the top of your reraise. I just do not see him having a completely worthless hand when he does that.

I quite like the idea of the stop and go, if I understand the concept fully. The whole idea is that you can avoid having to take a coin flip for your entire tournament. If he probably is not laying down pre-flop you are pretty much gambling - which you do not seem to think he is if you think 5s are likely to be "ahead" so often. If you think he would lay down to a big bet, you might go all-in - thinking that your 5s are probably a coin flip if he calls. (But, to be honest, 5s are just too easily dominated by many hands - any bigger pair, nearly any overcard suited connector, so on.)

To be honest, given your description of the villain in this hand - I do not even feel too bad about just laying them down. If you think he's trying to run over the table, you need to make a stand - but why here? You have the best possible position on a player that you feel is getting out of line. I would not waste this, you have an excellent opportunity to make a lot of chips as a much bigger favourite.

Long run, if you think you he has the range that makes you 11:9 or similar - yes, you are going to double up more often than not. That's a lot of variance though - 45% of the time you will be out of the tournament. I am pretty new at this, so I'm not sure how to work out if doubling up is worth falling out now 45% of the time.

Sorry if I have made a mistake, as I said - I'm pretty new to this. If anybody sees any gaping flaws I'd be happy to hear them. Good luck and I hope the 5s held up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[JeanieJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Long run, if you think you he has the range that makes you 11:9 or similar - yes, you are going to double up more often than not. That's a lot of variance though - 45% of the time you will be out of the tournament. I am pretty new at this, so I'm not sure how to work out if doubling up is worth falling out now 45% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think varience is an issue as I play with a more than proper bankroll for the limits I play. I honestly don't feel bad about losing the tournament because I believe I would be ahead often enough to make it worthwhile. Though perhaps thinking this way isn't correct for after placing. My stack size was decent but if I was going for a win, this would be a good way to build my stack.

Confusing hand but thanks everyone for your thoughts

-Jeanie
xo*Kisses*xo @ Stars

[Exitonly]

Push PF. you're not nearly short enough for a stop and go here. A push would be almost 2x the pot.

Making a raise to 9600 is bad, they're not going to fold as much as they would to a push, and you have to call when they push. So i don't see a point to that. It's not a hand you want to entice action from.

[JeanieJ]

I honestly expected him to fold. But you're right, a push is more likely to get him out of the hand. Besides when he reraises me all in, there's no way I can fold. So pushing is much better.

One thing i'm noticing throughout this thread is hearing you mention that being ahead should make this an automatic call. I think you're putting too much emphasis on "being ahead", and if in fact you do believe you're ahead, then I like the stop&amp;go here. This way you can further exploit your advantage by only allowing your opponent to see 3 instead of 5 cards. A hand that he may call an all-in with pre-flop (AK AQ etc.) he may fold when the flop comes 4-7-8 or something. Just because you believe you may be a statistical edge here doesn't make pushing this hand the right play all the time. I don't know how much the buy-in is here, but I normally play large buy-in live events, and pushing with a marginal hand such as this just doesn't hold enough equity in the long run, especially if you're jeopardizing a good chip position in doing so.