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  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:57 PM
highlife highlife is offline
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Default 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP. My table image is probably a little LAG, especially preflop but thats because I have been getting good hands, although not hitting flops so have not been showing down many of my preflop raising hands.

The main villian (turn donkbetter) is semi loose and can mix in some tricky play at times. Cold callers are fairly loose passive.

One limper, I raise, two cold calls, big blind calls, limper calls.

5 players to the flop

FLOP:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

first two check, i bet and all call (!!)

5 players to the turn

TURN:
5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, EP (sorta tricky villian) bets, I....

whats your play here?

I will then give you my action and ask another question about the river.
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  #2  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:05 PM
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

You need to raise here. You have a vulnerable one pair hand in a large pot, you must raise to protect your hand the times it is still in the lead. I also think there is a very good chance you have the turn bettor beat, if he turned a strong hand like a set or a straight he would probably go for the checkraise given his relative position.
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  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:14 PM
AviD AviD is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

I'd raise to shut out/charge the draws, he could be donking a Q or he may have hit two pair. I think he'd CR a set or straight here nearly 100% of the time, but may be betting either of those or even two pair hoping you'll raise an overpair and charge the turned straight and flush draws and protect his hand.

If all else fold and he 3-bets, you have odds to draw to your two pair and set outs if its HU. If others cold called and he 3-bets, I think you are drawing pretty thin and can find a fold. HU, call if he bets the river unless you spike an A or two pair, bet if checked to. Either way, I think this is a must raise given the number of players involved, the size of the pot, and the draw heavy board.
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  #4  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:29 PM
SA125 SA125 is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

Raise and call a 3 bet.
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  #5  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:52 PM
highlife highlife is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

[ QUOTE ]

FLOP:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

first two check, i bet and all call (!!)

5 players to the turn

TURN:
5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, EP (sorta tricky villian) bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

consensus was to raise, which I did.

I raise, LP1 coldcalls, LP2 fold, BB coldcalls, donk-better calls

(okay so a tricky aggressive player doesn't have the straight obviously, cold callers prob are on draws, but they are passive so they may have two pair or the low end of the straight)

four players

RIVER:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, check, your action??
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  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 06:05 PM
SA125 SA125 is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

Bet. If raised not autofolding. It depends.
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  #7  
Old 12-29-2005, 06:55 PM
AviD AviD is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

I bet, expecting to be called by a Q or 45s (tricky EP), but not by the cold callers. I call if tricky raises, you can probably safely fold to BB or LP1's raise unless you have a read on them and their river raising tendencies. I'd hate to fold though, and my weak ass would probably make the crying call due to shear pot size! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #8  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:15 PM
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

FLOP:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

first two check, i bet and all call (!!)

5 players to the turn

TURN:
5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, EP (sorta tricky villian) bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

consensus was to raise, which I did.

I raise, LP1 coldcalls, LP2 fold, BB coldcalls, donk-better calls

(okay so a tricky aggressive player doesn't have the straight obviously, cold callers prob are on draws, but they are passive so they may have two pair or the low end of the straight)

four players

RIVER:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, check, your action??

[/ QUOTE ]
With all those people coldcalling your raise, and the chance that the tricky player still may have you beat with a passively played 2 pair, my intention on the turn would be to check the river for a free showdwon. I wouldnt bet the river becuz anybody who cold called my turn riase on a draw will not call me on the river if they missed, and if they didnt have a draw to begin with there is a high chance they have me beat on the turn and played passively, plus there is still a chance the turn bettor has me beat.

However all this changes with that nice river card. Now you have Aces up, and you beat out many 2 pair combinations that loose players can possibly have, and everyone is very unlikely to have trip 6s given the action on the turn. I think you should now value bet this river.
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  #9  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:18 PM
Sully Sully is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

I'm going to respond without looking at the other posts first...

Obviously, the only thing you can do is give him a range of hands that he would limp in EP. I think about 80% of the time, you're going to be correct to guess small-mid pairs and suited connectors.

You are ahead of: 22,33,77,88,99,TT.
You are also ahead of: T9, JT, QJ, KQ, AK,
You are behind: 45, 56
You are way behind: 44,55,66
And about even with any flush draw, OESD: 67,34, and suited spades

I won't do the exact math on each winning percentage and likelihoodfor each hand. The reality is that it is a) too complicated and boring and b) unrealiztic to do exactly during a hand. Therefore, I have a general idea of where I stand here.

I know that I am leaving out a lot of things here, but this is an approximation of how I try to think during the actual play of the hand. I LOVE when people can break down the actual numbers for me and I can be educated after the hand, but I'm trying to show how I actually think through it, right or wrong.

And I don't really like it. But if he had a monster, why would he donk it out of position against four other players? Certainly, after your action, he has to assume that a bet would get raised by you and kill some of his action. A much better play for him when holding a monster would be to check-raise.

Therefore, I feel like it is most likely a draw or one pair with a draw. A small % of the time he has you beat already.

So what are the options?

I can't call here, and I think it is by far the worst choice.

I can fold here, and convince myself that I saved 2 - 5 bets. But I really don't want to be the guy who can be donked off Aces with a strange bet on a strange board.

So I raise. I may find out exactly what I need to know if I am reraised, and I have a pretty good idea of what cards I don't want to see on the river if I get a cold-caller or two.

Maybe I'll spray a chip or two here, and I don't think it's wrong to fold those Aces when you know you are no good. But in this case, I'm just not sure I know....sometimes I have to look at his donk bet as a good thing, and climb right up on top of it so I can get a little better view of things.
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  #10  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:23 PM
TheHip41 TheHip41 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 856
Default Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

FLOP:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

first two check, i bet and all call (!!)

5 players to the turn

TURN:
5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, EP (sorta tricky villian) bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

consensus was to raise, which I did.

I raise, LP1 coldcalls, LP2 fold, BB coldcalls, donk-better calls

(okay so a tricky aggressive player doesn't have the straight obviously, cold callers prob are on draws, but they are passive so they may have two pair or the low end of the straight)

four players

RIVER:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, check, your action??

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, bet. seriously, why would you bet?

are there people playing 30-60 that really check here?
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