Almost FT, A7o

[PrayingMantis]

I'm putting ~100K to win ~120K. this is 1.2:1 on my money. I'm 1.4:1 fav against KQ here (I'm actually in a worse situation against QT). This means it is about +28K in EV.

MLG says that CEV is not close to $EV here, and this is pretty much true (I wouldn't say "not even close", but there's a difference for sure). However, considering the short stack sizes, and the fact the the big jumps in prize money are still pretty far ahead at the final table, I think that giving up on such clear +CEV spot is a long term losing play.

To MLG: the fact that CEV is not equal to $EV does not mean that taking this one is -$EV, and what's more, it does not mean that this spot isn't actually better in terms of $EV than some future marginal situations, i.e, aggressive moves with garbage against other short stacks, which might of course be +$EV, but not necessarily higher than this call here, and not necessarily with much smaller risk.

[MLG]

Yeah, my stance might have been a little too strong, this is not an obvious decision one way or the other. You are also right that later stealing chances are not necessarily higher EV (although I think they probably are). This is pretty much all a feel thing, because I can't really quantify how much edge its right to give up here (and im not sure anybody ever really has). My feeling is that with the other shortstacks around you are costing yourself money by taking a pretty small edge when they will probaby be busting soon. Its interesting discussion. It would be nice if there was a definite answer but I'm not sure there is.

[adanthar]

Coming from an SNG background, this is a very obvious fold, largely because of the increase in prize equity you get by default once 2-3 other people bust out.

edit: I swear I didn't read MLG's post before typing this, heh.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Coming from an SNG background, this is a very obvious fold, largely because of the increase in prize equity you get by default once 2-3 other people bust out.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I'm actually coming from what you'd call a SNG background as well (as you probably know), and I don't see how the increase in prize money that comes when *2* more people bust (~+$150), has a great implication on the $EV of taking this spot. It's not like someone is about to bust next hand and the FT bubble will burst.

Again, I'm rather surprised to see another "very obvious fold". If that's an "obvious fold", then calling with, say, A9-AT, should be "close", which is completely ridiculous.

[adanthar]

I think they are close. If you run an ICM (I haven't but I've done them on similar hands before) I think you wind up needing a 60 something winning percentage to call.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I think they are close. If you run an ICM (I haven't but I've done them on similar hands before) I think you wind up needing a 60 something winning percentage to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, if you think that calling with AT-A9 on the BB with these stacks against a push by a very aggressive big stack on SB is "close", you are playing a losing MTT game. And I don't mean to sound offensive or anything.

[adanthar]

I don't want to offend either, but when Strassa, MLG, bugstud and I all agree this is a fold, it's a fold.

A9o would probably be a marginal call if you put him on a random hand. Probably.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to offend either, but when Strassa, MLG, bugstud and I all agree this is a fold, it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, this is not an argumet. Are we discussing MTT strategy or come here to say "he said so, it must be true"??

But if you insist, MLG has already stated above, as a reply to a previous post of mine here: "this is not an obvious decision one way or the other." Strassa didn't come back to this thread until now (knowing Strassa, I'm not sure he won't be convinced this is a call after all, but I'll let him speak for himself), and Bugstud only said "what he said" after Strassa. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I really think that you (as others here) tend to be somewhat weak tight when it comes to calling, specifically all-in. I can understand it, but sometimes you should really re-evaluate IMO.

I was ready to be conviced that this is maybe a fold, but as this thread developes, I find calling more and more correct, and I don't see any strong enough argument in favour of folding this clear and significant (IMO) +EV spot.

[adanthar]

First off, it's not like this is a weird flop that there's three ways to play or anything. This is a question with a clear answer; there's definitely only one correct choice to make and generally, when the instincts of someone like MLG say that is a fold, it's a fold.

Having said that, the way you'd do the math is to run an ICM calc the same way that I eyeballed/someone did on strassa's AQ SB post a few days ago. That hand turned out to turn on whether AQ was an under 60% favorite. In this hand, you have a smaller stack, but the payouts are steeper (because you haven't hit 9 yet) and there are more people, so I'm making an educated guess that you need around the same 60%, give or take 2-3%, to call. A7o is not there; A9o might be if he's pushing any two, etc.

Give us the exact payouts, number of entries and starting chips, or run the ICM yourself. It'll almost certainly say 'fold'.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
when the instincts of someone like MLG say that is a fold, it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, I really don't get it. Please read the more recent post of MLG in this thread, in which he says it is not clear and basically a feel thing. If you keep insisting that if MLG says something then that's the definite answer, you better read what he says more carefully. And even MLG can change his mind, believe it or not! But this is really getting ridiculous.

About the ICM - you'll need exact stacks of players in the other table too, which I don't have, but I can evaluate from memory if that's so important. Anyway, I repeat what I said: thinking that calling w/ AT-A9 here is "close" is being in a losing state of mind. Quite frankly, if ICM will "tell" you otherwise [edit: I mean - will tell you it's close/fold], it is not a very useful tool to say the least.