would you gamble or be patient?

[superleeds]

Hi all, this is my first post so go easy please.

NLHE Tournament at Foxwoods, 515 entrants, starting chips 1500, down to 14 players. Prize money does not increase again until final 9.

Blinds are 1500 and 3000 with antes at 500.

I have about 35k and try to steel in the C/O with K9 (K is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). I make it 9K to go. BB is the only caller and he has me outchipped 2:1. With antes the pot contains 23K.

The flop is JT8 with 2 diamonds and the BB bets out 10K. What would you do and why?

Thanks in advance

[daryn]

mmmm... i like that flop. i really want to push all in here, but only if i thought there was a reasonable chance he'd fold of course, which would be best. he might be semi bluffing with a 9, and you have the K so if the Q falls that's a plus. but if he was semibluffing with a 9 he probably wouldn't call your all in bet. so do you just call and see a turn? yikes.. 10K to call, seems like a no.

i have no idea!

[DougBrennan]

If I did the math in my head right, you are below average in chips even before the hand starts, and you will be way down if you fold now. You were in an obvious steal position, and the BB could be bullying you. It may not be textbook, but I would go all-in with this flop. This gives you the chance of getting the BB to fold if he's playing you, plus you've got your outs for the straight.

So I would call, because that seems like the best opportunity to move into the more significant money. But I'd also be mentally preparing to pack my bags.

[Goodie]

I think I would push all in. The big money's in the top three spots and this could be the hand that gives you the chips to contend for that big money. You'd hate to fold this oppurtunity and be blinded away. There is definetly a reasonable chance that the BB will fold since it would be 16,000 more for him to call and even if he calls, there's a chance that not only is a seven or queen good, but a king may be good as well. I think that these type of hands win tournaments, so be bold and push in.

What happened?

Peace
Goodie

[Bozeman]

Given your small stack, I think you have to make the move that gives you the largest chance to win this pot. Usually that would be push in on the flop, but occasionally it might be call the flop and push in on the turn. Since you act last, it is very likely on the flop because he will probably not check to you. If there is no chance that he will fold, I guess you need to call to induce as many bluffs as possible.

Ugh,
Craig

[superleeds]

Thanks for the replys all.

I'm afraid i wimped out and folded but I think you've basically confirmed what i thought at the time, that i had enough of the flop to take the gamble. I asked the guy a couple of days later and although he couldn't remember the hand exactly he said he almost certainly had AJ or QQ.

Thanks again
Paul

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you need to call to induce as many bluffs as possible.

Ugh,
Craig

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, hard to induce a bluff, when you are the one bluffing at this point. Now I agree if you are wanting to win the pot and get as much money out of it, knowing all your chips are going in no matter what, then checking and calling is OK. But, that's terribly poor poker, IMO.

I think you have to push-in here, if he calls. Fine, you almost definitely have 17 outs here.

[Stew]

OK, after re-evaluating this, I do not understand how you didn't push all-in here on the flop. You said there was 23K in pre-flop and he bet another 10K in on the flop. If you made it 9K to go preflop, then you have 26K left, correct?

So, you are pushing in 26K to win 33K, plus 26 if he calls. I'd say you most definitely have implied odds here as you are getting over 2-1 on your money with 17 outs and two cards to go.

[superleeds]

I only have 11 outs if my K is good, i only have 1 diamond. I mentioned it just for the slight runner runner possibilities. But i agree it was a mistake to fold. It was my first time in this position at these buy-ins ($500) if thats any excuse

Paul