K9s in BB against super TAG. How pathetic is the Turn?

[TTChamp]

I think I screwed this hand up, maybe on every street. Please help.

Button is 26.6/21.2/4.58 over 450 hands. The average number of players in these 450 hands is 3.7==>this guy is very tight and very aggressive.

Absolute 2/4 3 handed.
Hero is BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pre Flop:
Button raises, 1 fold, Hero raises, Button calls

Flop(6.3 SB):3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Button calls

Turn(4.0 BB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button checks

River(4.0 BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero folds

My main interest is the turn but I would like opinions on all streets. During the hand my thinking was that almost any hand that button would raise with preflop and call with on the flop would be raising me on the turn. I am almost certain he would be raising me with any ace and any pocket pair, and I think he would have folded hands like KJo on the flop. When I finished the hand I decided that not betting the turn was a huge mistake. I think his call on the flop through me off because it was so out of character.

[jph0424]

I do not like the 3 bet preflop because he has position on you and will probably have a stronger hand than you a substantial amount of the time. I also do not understand the river bet. What is he calling with that you beat? what is he folding that beats you? I check the river and make a decision if he bets (usually I fold).

[TTChamp]

I have been looking for more opportunities to defend my blind with a 3 bet, but I agree that this was probably not the best spot. Certainly a 3 bet is appropriate with KQ. What about KJs? KTs? QJs?

My play on the river was mainly influence by his turn check. Like I said in the original post, this guy really surprised me by just calling on the flop. The turn check seemed like a huge sign of weakness.

His turn check ruled out a pocket pair and made an ace less likely (maybe bad logic, but I think this guy would bet an ace with this board).

My thinking was that he would river bet QJ, Qt, etc (to try to fold a K) but check with Kt, KJ, etc. I had decided that I was folding to his river bet. The fact that he checked the turn was a sign that he had a marginal hand (like KJ). I was also confident that he would fold if he didn't have an ace.

The turn check makes me think that I have enough fold equity to make this river bet.

[waffle]

I call preflop and check/fold flop. This may be too weak against this guy, though. How many hands do you think he's raising on the button? 3bet isn't that bad.

In your hand I bet the turn. I think you have sufficient folding equity + outs if he calls/raises. You've 3bet, he's a habitual stealer. He could easily just be peeling a card before he folds.

After you check the turn and he checks through, I check/fold the river.

Check his attempts to steal %. This will help you greatly in determining the proper course of action.

[TTChamp]

[ QUOTE ]
Check his attempts to steal %. This will help you greatly in determining the proper course of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

His attempt to steal blinds is 24.88%

I'm not sure how useful that stat is though given that the average number of players in hands he has played is 3.7. I never use this stat. Please expand on how it helps me in this situation.