The Theory of Top Set

[JFB37]

This situation came up last night and, while weighing my options, I realized that I was working almost entirely off of experience and my reads on the other players in the pot. It dawned on me that I wasn't aware of any reasonable theoretical way to approach this type of problem. I'm wondering if there is some approach I am overlooking or is this just poker.

The 3/3 PL HE game at the Vic: It is tournament week so it is busy but it is a pretty typical Vic table, a mix of solid regulers, donators and nut peddlers.

Three limpers to the sb who raises the pot. I have QQ in the bb and decide to smooth call. (Debate this if you like but it is not the point of the post.) All three limpers call for a pot of 90. I have about 650 behind and stack sizes of the others in the pot range from 450 to 1200.

Flop is a dream: Q 7 3 rainbow.

SB checks to me. I have the absolute best possible hand at the moment and there are only seven possible hands that can catch a card on the turn to beat me. Clearly, I'm a big favorite. So, what's the plan:

(1) Bet out and hope for a caller or, in a perfect world, a raise?

(2) Check planning to c/r?

(3) Check planning to call with the idea of playing a big pot on a later street?

I have played enough to have had an opinion about which option was best but it was based almost entirely on what I have seen happen in other hands in the past.

I'm posting this here rather than in MHS because I am interested in any thoughts on how to analyze this hand from a theoretical perspective.

Thanks in advance.

edit: fixed confusing typo noted in first reply.

[ QUOTE ]

...I have QQ in the bb ...

...BB checks to me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Am I mis-reading or just don't understand? You're in the BB and then BB checks to you?

Moving on. I bet the pot. That's without any knowledge of the table, you, how they play, how they know/think you play, etc.

Theory is fine, and you can debate all the options 'til pigs start to fly, but with just what you've posted, I'd bet it and let the other players take it from there.

[JFB37]

Sorry. The SB checked. I fixed the intial post.

Reads Reads Reads

There is no "correct" way to play here - it all depends on your reads of the players at your table.

Absent any reads, my approach here is to check - depending on what happens next, I may call a bet or check-raise.

My goal here is to build the pot - so if I check and UTG bets and it is called around to me, you best believe I will raise at that point. If, on the other hand, it is checked around to the button who bets, then I would probably just call.

[elmitchbo]

i think simply betting the pot is too blunt. if you bet at all a smaller probe size bet would be better.

i certainly agree that checking isn't a bad idea. i think the theory has to be a little more than just building the pot. with a hand that strong you want to start building the pot now, but also try to insure that you will be able to continue to build the pot on later streets.

actually, in a situation like this you might want to give a free card in hopes that somebody catches up a little. nothing would better than a guy holding A7 catching another 7 or an Ace.

[Tilt]

First, try and do whatever is consistent what you would do with a lesser hand. If you are a very aggressive player, don't check now. Conversely, if you haven't bet the pot with anything but TPTK or better until now don't do it now. Whatever you do should seek to invite your opponents agression.

If making a stab at the pot with a small bet is a reasonable play for you, do that here. SB's check may indicate a nice c/r coming from a big pair or AQ. And your position is actually great for such a play, as all the other limpers have to act before they see whether the SB is going to c/r.

I would go ahead and make a probe bet. Something that keeps someone with A7 or even AQ in the pot. A check-raise might build the pot, but it's probably going to kill any future action you can induce with pot odds. A check-call, might also build the pot, but too often I've done that only to have the opponent catch up and some how pass me because now, on the turn, he IS getting the right odds to call.

A bet will push out the weaker draws like a backdoor flush or straight while keeping in anyone playing MPTK, which has to be the best situation.

I read this after my post, and it dawned on me that an even bigger range of second best hands is possible, especially from the SB. KQ, QJ, QT all seem like reasonable plays given the preflop action. Yes, I think at this point I would make a probe bet if, like was said, that is consistent with my style of play.

[JFB37]

These are some very interesting comments and rather confirm my thoughts on the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Reads Reads Reads

[/ QUOTE ]

The pf raiser in the sb was a weak nut peddler who was probably giving up on the hand by checking. He either whiffed with AK or had something like JJ or TT. I had some hope that he would c/r with AA internet style but doubted it.

As to the other players, one was a chaser, one was liable to call with any piece and the third (on the button) was a very good Vic regular.

One other point that may be relevant to reads. I debated what, for me, was an unusally long time before calling the pf raise. I was thinking about how I wanted to play the pot and deciding between re-raising pf (which would plainly define my hand) and just calling to see if the pot could be built by the limpers trailing along, which it was. Someone, however, might have misinterpreted my hesitation for having a weak hand.

[ QUOTE ]
First, try and do whatever is consistent what you would do with a lesser hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

An excellent point. It's obvious, but I've never seen it reduced to a dictim quite this well.

Thanks to all. I'll wait a bit more before posting results.

[Guernica4000]

If this was my first hand and I had no reads on any of the players I would bet a tester bet maybe 1/2 the pot representing that you hit a piece of the flop and you want to know where everyone stands. If you are cold called, I would bet the pot on the turn regardless of what the next card is. (Well unless it is a Q). If a Q hits I would bet 1/2 the pot again.

If you are re-raised by any player I would re-raise the pot making this a two player show down with you going in with the best of it.

I would definitely not recommend c/r or just checking. c/r gives away to much information about your hand and checking doesn't help you gather information about your opponents’ hands.