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  #21  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:45 PM
Dagger78 Dagger78 is offline
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

Since we have zero information on the small blind we must assume he acts in a way consistant with your average 2/4 player, which is to say a CR on this flop means straight, set, two pair, or flush draw in my experience. I just think we need to be ahead more often than not to profitably 3-bet this flop. And I'm just not sure if that is the case. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

I guess what I'm saying is if the SB has us beat we're drawing to 2 or 4 outs and a small chance at the broadway chop or backdoor flush. Either way if we're beat by the SB it pretty much doesn't matter what the players behind us have since we need to improve to the boat to win, and we'd want them to stay in to build the pot.

Ok here's the question I don't think I know the answer to, If we believe the sb has us beat more often then not is it still correct to 3-bet the flop? (I'm not saying he does or doesn't have us beat, I just want to know how often we have to be ahead to make this correct given the size of the pot)
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  #22  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:49 PM
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

[ QUOTE ]
Since we have zero information on the small blind we must assume he acts in a way consistant with your average 2/4 player, which is to say a CR on this flop means straight, set, two pair, or flush draw in my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of the amount of information we have, I think we can significantly discount a set here.
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  #23  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:51 PM
Dagger78 Dagger78 is offline
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

Yes a set is very unlikely. but it is one of the few hands amd average SB will have when Check-raising 4 people on the flop.
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  #24  
Old 12-31-2005, 05:03 PM
Sarge85 Sarge85 is offline
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

[ QUOTE ]
I'm genuinely puzzled as to why anyone wouldn't 3-bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm definately with Harv here. We seem to really be de-valuing our hand at the moment.

I actually think three betting does offer a bit of protection because the intial callers that called the first flop bet may fold before calling two others.

Now I'm sure we could argue whether they would be correct or incorrect to do so - the fact of the matter is that they do at times.

Current sets seem unlikely since they probably would have put in another round of bets PF. If SB flopped a nutter for the time being - he's passing up a good opportuinity for a larger CR on a later street - so I'd discount a flopped straight as well.

Our worry is the Flush draw - but if they (the players after me) want to put in two more - so be it. I've still got a 6 outs to a monster, and without even doing the sims, intuitively I know I've got a large enough hand equity to push here.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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  #25  
Old 12-31-2005, 06:46 PM
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

Waiting for the turn is a VALUE play and I see it applied to situations like this incorrectly a lot.

By raising the turn, a gutshot draw is the only hand that Hero can and wants to fold.
If there is a gutshot out there, we can't protect against it on the flop.
When a safe card falls on the turn, the gutshot holds about 8% equity. The value in folding the gutshot is having that equity donated to Hero.
Hero's equity (if ahead) is likely 50+%. So the value of folding the gutshot =
8%*50%*11.5BB
= .46BB

So Hero gains .46BB when he folds a gutshot on the turn. Lets say that Hero folds all Kings and all Tens, by which he doubles the amount of equity gained to .94BB or ~1BB.

Now what are the chances that Hero folds every K or every T with a raise. Not to mention the chance that SB will lead the turn again. Who knows?

But if we give the VERY generous estimate that the combination that SB leads the turn and that Hero can fold every gutshot happens 80% of the time - the value to Hero = ~.8BB .

Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

Not to mention the times he is called in more spots and when SB re-raises with a worse hand (ie.FD).

Waiting for the turn in this hand is not the best option IMO.

This is the first concept I wanted to discuss with this hand.

Waiting for the turn is for hands whose equity is unclear and likely much lower than this hand - ie. 1 pair hands.

But the common misconception is that waiting for the turn is to fold Gutshots.
Yes. Partly. But it is also to fold hands like bottom and middle pair as well. These hands will generally have 5 outs against Hero (1pr hand) and are MORE dangerous to Hero than a 4 out gutshot. For each of these hands folded, Hero's hand will gain in value by ~10% in equity. Well worth the trade off in lost flop value.

In this case, Hero has value ADDED rather than lost when middle and bottom pair hands call.
IMO. There is way too much value and way too much overlay to wait til the turn.
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  #26  
Old 12-31-2005, 08:02 PM
Dagger78 Dagger78 is offline
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

In my opinion this is not a case of waiting until the turn to raise to protect my hand. I believe the real question lies in how often are we ahead given a reasonable( ie. Average) small blind. If we are ahead 50% of the time here, re-raising is a no brainer. If we're behind the small blind to a flopped straight, set or bigger two pair then re-raising does nothing for us, since in those cases we have 2 or 4 outs.
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  #27  
Old 12-31-2005, 08:34 PM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

[ QUOTE ]
Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check your other numbers, but I'm preety sure this is off. First of all I think you confused BB with SB... and also I think you are forgetting that you dont have 100% equity in the bet that you are putting in. If we have 40% equity against two callers, Hero only gains (.4)(3) - 1 = .2 SB or .1 BB
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  #28  
Old 12-31-2005, 09:08 PM
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Default Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check your other numbers, but I'm preety sure this is off. First of all I think you confused BB with SB... and also I think you are forgetting that you dont have 100% equity in the bet that you are putting in. If we have 40% equity against two callers, Hero only gains (.4)(3) - 1 = .2 SB or .1 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are correct. I exchanged sb for BB because they are calling 2sb after Hero raises but you are correct they are only calling an additional 1sb over what they would if Hero waited. And yes I did overlook the investment on Hero's behalf in the raise.

But there are a number of equalising factors which make the principle still hold true.

1. The equity of a naked gutshot on the turn is closer to 6% due to the presence of the flush draw.
2. The chance that villians hold JUST a gutshot and are likely to fold them is grossly overexaggerated
3. If one villian holds KQ (and doesn't fold) and another holds a naked K (and does fold) Hero has actually lost .5BB by folding the gutshot. Along with all the hands that Hero has crushed that would have called a single turn bet.

4. The amount of times that SB leads this turn is another % I grossly overestimated in an attempt to exaggerate the point (which has slightly backfired)

Thankyou for pointing this out. EV calculations (the correct versions) are still relatively new to me.

However, the value of waiting for the turn to raise is significantly reduced when Hero holds anything more than a single pair.

Bottom line -
Value of raising flop>Value of waiting for the turn.
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