Hypothetical Question

[Sparks]

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. Ax is definitely playable from either blind and probably outside the blinds as well, although somewhat marginal there.

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Are you assuming a raise every time PF from KK? If not, you should be, I think.

Sparks

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Huh? Of course I'm assuming KK raises.

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Okay, then how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks

[elindauer]

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how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks


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Hi Sparks,

You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold.

4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose $45 = $180 ($160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

You're also understating the amount you win, as you left out both blinds as profit. When you win the 5th time, you win (105 or 110) + 30 + 60 + 60 = (260 or 265), assuming you get in no raises postflop.

That's $16-$21 / hand depending on the blind structure vs folding.

good luck.
Eric

edit: by the way, note that these numbers show calling outside the blinds to be barely profitable as well, HU at least. You win $260 when you catch, and lose $60 when you miss. Net EV = .18 (260) - .82 (60) = $2.40 / hand

This is too close to actually play though probably, as you have to worry about another dominating ace playing, or someone having AA, or the KK not paying off the ace high flop...

[Sparks]

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how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks


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You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold. 4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose $45 = $180 ($160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

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Huh? I'm including the posted blind money, as I should. Why are you not including the blind money? 4 out of 5 times you lose 60 which is 240. On the 5th time you win 60 + 30 + 60 + 60 + 30(the folded BB post) = 240. So your best case scenario is you are break even when you're the SB. Otherwise, it's -EV, including playing from the BB and most certainly from positions other than the blinds.

If you don't want to include the posted blind money as a loss 4 out of 5 times, then Ax is +EV from the blinds. But obviously, it's just plain silly not to include it. Is it not money you are losing?

Thanks for your thoughts on this, by the way.

Sparks

[elindauer]

To put it in your language Sparks, you'd have to look at a fold as losing $20. So 5 folds is -$100. Calling loses less, so it's +EV.

Personally, I think this is a very confusing way to look at the math, so I avoid it, but it's no less correct. I prefer to look at the money in the pot as dead, and folding is $0 EV. Either way, calling Ax is the play, worth over 1/2 SB / hand.

good luck.
eric