Totally out of control - QQ

[Subfallen]

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I really like the river bet. If he has AA or KK he is betting anyway, and so you you will get that money in, yet he is pretty unlikely to raise you given your action. Also, you may occasionally get him to actually fold his AA or KK,...

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YSSCKY.

[Spicymoose]

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I really like the river bet. If he has AA or KK he is betting anyway, and so you you will get that money in, yet he is pretty unlikely to raise you given your action. Also, you may occasionally get him to actually fold his AA or KK,...

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YSSCKY.

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If this were heads up on the river (no all in SB), I think this VALID point is worth a bunch, as the pot is almost 30 BB. That would mean that if villain EVER folded these hands, we would profit. Given that the SB is still in, and that he probably owns the pot, the detail I mentioned plays a much less role. The real question now is whether we are getting value from buttons extremely overplayed AK, or a JJ. Looking over it again, I don't think this is often enough, and we should probably just check/fold the river.

[tolbiny]

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did you try using your disconnect protect at any point in the hand?

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[Wynton]

This seems like a pretty difficult lineup, and I can easily imagine myself going passive, right or wrong.

Frankly, I don't know that it makes much difference what you do on the flop. Doesn't sound like betting at any point on the flop - or even the turn - is going to help win the hand.

That river bet looks gutsy to me. I think I'd be going into check/call mode.

I certainly don't believe you're making AA or KK fold, like someone said.

[Victor]

cant fold the 6-outer on the turn. combine that with the chance that sb is going nutso allin as some do.

[TheMetetron]

If we were HU I agree, but we have to call 2 more BB's after a turn 3-bet and STILL face even more bets/raises by an UTG player who has bet/raised at every opportunity he had.

We are screwed in my opinion.


Also, I really hate the passivity of this hand early on. It makes this whole hand must tougher to play.

[TheMetetron]

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cant fold the 6-outer on the turn. combine that with the chance that sb is going nutso allin as some do.

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You think we really have 6 outs combined against both these players ranges? Also, the possibility of a cap from UTG is very real.

[tolbiny]

the sb puts in 8BB's in this hand, it doesn't look like a "i'm almost allin so im going nutz" kind of hand.

[Jeff W]

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At the very least you need to fold to a turn 3-bet.

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Can't fold to the turn 3-bet. The worst case scenario is you're up against AA or TT and have 6 outs getting ~8:1+implied.

[TheMetetron]

Ok, somehow I totally missed the gutshot. Don't ask me. I need to go back and recalc this now.