I really need your help (personal and kinda long /w stats)

[Shillx]

I've been playing poker full time for about 10 months now (about 16 months since I first playing on Party), and I love the game but I think that my playing days are almost over. So I jumped into the Party 3/6 games full time (because this is what we used to play live in Tucson/Phoenix) and I played just breakeven poker for about 4 months. I wasn't happy with it so I went out and bought SSH and shorty after I felt like my play was getting better (for the next 4 months). By the time I thought my play was "on the right track" I hit a 500 BB downswing and got wiped out. I was playing a TAG style (that most of you use, like 17/8/3) game and it just wasn't working for whatever reason.

After I reloaded, I signed up for 2p2 and turned into the "rock" that you guys know me as. I wanted a style that was low varience yet still exploited enough mid sized edges to pull the money in. It worked well for about 2 months and then it was back to breakeven poker again. On new years day I decided to tweak my game a bit again and here are the numbers for yoo to look at (this is from Party 5/10):

Hands: 5003
VPIP: 11.46% VPSB: 15.77%
PFR: 6.83%
Folded to steal: 89.6%/68%
Att. to steal: 16.04%
WTSD: 33.05%
W$@SD: 54.44%
Aggression: 2.1/2.4/2.32 Total: 2.24
Check/raise: 2.06%
Folded to River bet: 38.6%
Winrate: - 0.95 BB/100

AA: 3.19 BB/Hand
KK: .9
QQ: .14
JJ: 1.98
TT: .14
AKo/AKs: .58/(.44)
AQo/AQs: 1.13/.6

This doesn't look like I'm running bad. It just looks like I'm playing bad. But I dunno, I would like some opinions.

Okay, now to the important part. My winrate over the last 45000 hands is .34 BB/100, and that isn't going to pay the bills in the long run, so I have a couple questions for you fellow microers:

1) How helpful are my posts/advice?
2) Have you employed anything I have said into your play and if so, has it been helpful to your own game?

When I use my own advice (that I give on here), I don't seem to see any positive results. If my advise is worthless, I would like to know so I can rethink my strategy. If my advice is sound and it has really benefited you all, I think that it is time for me to hang um up as a poker player. Don't worry, I will still hang around and post (if you guys want me to), but I think I just wan't meant to be a full time player.

What say you? Thank you for any/all input here.

Brad

[DMBFan23]

I don't know 3/6 that well, but you seem really tight. FWIW, my aggression curve postflop goes the other way, starting at 3 on the flop, then going to like 2.2 on the turn, and then 2 on the river. I don't know why that is though.

I think your posts are solid, which ironically might not be what you wanted to hear. you, btspider, and entity are (IMO) three of the micro forum posters that have that ability to come into a thread and tell it like it is most of the time.

hope this turns around.

[jskills]

Hey Brad,

I've only been posting here for a month or so. Only been playing limit for 3 months. I have had decent success so far, but only at .5/1 at Party.

I've found your replies to posts always to be well grounded and never plain "wrong". You sound like a student of the game to me. Now please realize, that quite often I have found my thinking to be off after seeing some posts by some of the others here, so please take my opinion for what it's worth with a grain of salt.

Looking at your stats, it seems you've gone into a shell somewhat? The VPIP is way too low no? What kind of hands are you throwing out? Drawing hands are the ones that don't hit often, but when they do you're knocking down big pots.

Also, why play 3/6 if you are struggling in the least bit? Wouldn't playing at a lower limit guarantee you more opponents who will make playing worth your while?

I know it's not just about making money, it's about raising your level of play and being able to compete at a high level that would give most poker enthusiasts here satisfaction, so long as winning money goes along with it of course. I'd rather make money from sub par opponents than break even (or worse lose) against worthy opponents. I'd like to hear what other people think about my last point.

[meep_42]

You know I think your posts are quite helpful, and i'll often try to probe you in replies for more broad theoretical analysis.

You look really, really tight (sample size disclaimer) since new year's -- and you haven't been running great by your big pair bb/hand.

My own personal and probably unfounded opinion is that you're playing your good/big hands well, but may not be pushing enough marginal edges to get to a more solid win rate. But, I don't follow your small stakes posts that much.

It seems to me that you are fantastic at reading hands here on the boards -- are you just as good when you're in the middle of playing?

-d

[meep_42]

Also, have you considered that you may be calling too many river bets/raises?

Perhaps post a couple you thought were close? (Your Fold to River bet seems below the 48-52 benchmark I think i've seen.)

-d

[shadow29]

I don't have that much time, Brad, but here are few quick thoughts.

You are too tight. Really. Go back to the old 17/10/3 game.
5/10 full sucks. Bad.
5/10 short is incredible.
2/4 is incredible.
3/6 is aight.

Switch games, chief. Oh, and take a vacation.

[ucfryan]

It doesn't look like you're running particularly well to be honest just glancing over your numbers with your higher pocket pairs, and your VP$IP is kind of low.

I have a ton of respect for guys like you, Entity, bt, etc, but sometimes your advice does come across as really tight. You've said you've never played anything below 3/6, so I guess you don't know how disgustingly bad most of the players at .5/1 are.

I don't know, I really don't see any reason why you shouldn't be beating the 3/6 and 5/10 games. From reading your posts, you seem to use your reads well and make disciplined decisions, maybe you're just afraid to lose again (the ungodly large downswing). Re-evaluate your game, open it up a little, attack more, but don't quit. If you're open to it also, try playing the 5/10 6max games, the swings can be tough from what I hear, but I've datamined the tables and overall the players there are terrible.

Hope that helped in some way

Ryan

[shadow29]

Oh, you need to get more aggressive postflop, too.

To be frank, (and please, I'm only trying to help) you're weak-tight. Post some hands in which you question your aggression. Send your last 1000 hands to a coach.

[GrunchCan]

Shill,

1) How helpful are my posts/advice?
2) Have you employed anything I have said into your play and if so, has it been helpful to your own game?


Your advice has been of great help to me, personally.

In the micros forum, like at the low-limit poker tables in a B&M, there is a mix of posters. Thier advice ranges from the good to very bad, with most somewhere in the middle. You are on the shallow end oif the curve, with your advice being consistantly correct and right-headed.

When someone posts and I give advice, sometimes people disagree with me. When you disagree with me, I sit back and think about it some more. I respect your opinion, and you have demonstrated to me both in theory and at the occasional 2+2 table the correctness of your play.

As for the rest of your post, it screamed "I need a poker break!" We all get burned out from time to time, no matter what we do. When you get burned out, you end up doing one of 2 things: 1) You go on vacation to recharge, 2) You climb a clocktower, and start picking off the town.

I'll perhaps have more to say later.

[Wario]

Hi Brad, sorry to hear things aren't going so well.

You seem pretty tight but it was your choice to sacrifice some +EV plays in order to have lower SD so that's fine.

Regardless of the results I think you know you're a winning player. I don't think I could stand that much break-even poker, I started wanting to break things when I was in the red after 8k hands.

I like your posts as some provide +EV non-aggressive approachs to hands that I would play LAGGY. My natural playing style is LAG so I find taking those different lines of thought helpful.

Good luck