Review: Hands 71 and 75

[adsman]

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Hand 99

New table. Everyone is unknown.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero folds.

I don't know if I like it. What do we think?



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Donk-bet the Turn?

[srt19170]

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Hand 71

At the risk of sounding like a rube (again, I'm learning, be nice!), what about value-betting on the turn?


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I must be a rube, too.

[srt19170]

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Hand 99
New table. Everyone is unknown.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.


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Why make this call? With the K on the board and two callers, there's a very good chance your middle pair is behind and you're drawing to 5.5 or less outs.

-- Scott

[numeri]

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Hand 71

At the risk of sounding like a rube (again, I'm learning, be nice!), what about value-betting on the turn?


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I must be a rube, too.

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How many outs do you give hero on the turn?

[numeri]

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Hand 99
New table. Everyone is unknown.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.


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Why make this call? With the K on the board and two callers, there's a very good chance your middle pair is behind and you're drawing to 5.5 or less outs.

-- Scott

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2 7's, 3 A's, 1.5 for BDFD = 6.5 outs. Needing about 6:1 and getting 8.5:1.

[milesdyson]

MP1 never has AA, KK, or AK?

[numeri]

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MP1 never has AA, KK, or AK?

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I thought of that as soon as I posted. How much do we discount everything? Obviously he could have lots of other stuff, but I'm not sure how much to discount.

[srt19170]

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How many outs do you give hero on the turn?

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As the original poster said, 9 outs to the flush, 4 outs to the straight, and 3 outs to the pair of Kings. If the Kings are good you're 1.88:1, which makes a bet (or better, a raise) for value straightforward. Even if you totally discount the Kings, you're probably getting better than 2:1 implied odds, aren't you? What am I missing?

-- Scott

[srt19170]

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MP1 never has AA, KK, or AK?

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I thought of that as soon as I posted. How much do we discount everything? Obviously he could have lots of other stuff, but I'm not sure how much to discount.

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With his pre-flop raise from MP1, isn't he likely to have at least an A or K? But actually, you convinced me anyway. You're getting 8.5:1 which means you only need about 4.5 outs anyway. I think you have that many (and the implied odds are much better at any rate).

-- Scott

[numeri]

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How many outs do you give hero on the turn?

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As the original poster said, 9 outs to the flush, 4 outs to the straight, and 3 outs to the pair of Kings. If the Kings are good you're 1.88:1, which makes a bet (or better, a raise) for value straightforward. Even if you totally discount the Kings, you're probably getting better than 2:1 implied odds, aren't you? What am I missing?

-- Scott

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You're duplicating the flush outs - the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is counted twice. And always discount your overcards. The standard is 1.5 each. So that gives us 9 for the flush, 3 for the non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J's, and 1.5 for the K's, giving us a grand total of 13.5 outs. So we'll win this hand on the river card approximately 13.5/46 = 29% of the time. We need at least 3 other callers to make a bet for value.

You might be able to add some implied odds. My understanding (limited though it is) is to consider implied odds when calling, not betting. I could definitely be off there, though.