One big, bad session.

graarrg · #1 10-22-2005, 04:24 AM

when I started pl seriously, I had a little practice in miscellaneous games and was ready to apply my knowledge of limit and hand values to kick some ass. So I did. I ran very well for my first pot limit sessions, making beautiful daily hauls potting the best hand and getting called, losing severely only a couple of times. Until today. Today was tragic, providing me with almost 3 buy-ins worth of whack-in-the face lost hands. I managed to pull the session to a single buy-in lost, but not after wondering how horribly I must have played to deserve it. Here are a couple of the hands:

Hand 1:

Seat 1: scowler ($26.00 in chips)
Seat 2: nailbiter ($12.25 in chips)
Seat 3: wildvest ($22.50 in chips)
Seat 4: tbncrkz ($97.25 in chips)
Seat 5: Daffy Dave ($38.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Tx_Bob ($38.25 in chips)
Seat 7: shaffeman ($18.50 in chips)
Seat 8: stark67 ($26.75 in chips)
Seat 9: graarrg ($47.00 in chips)
Seat 10: ASWWW ($41.00 in chips)
Tx_Bob : Post Small Blind ($0.25)
shaffeman: Post Big Blind ($0.50)
Dealing...
Dealt to graarrg [ 2h ]
Dealt to graarrg [ Ah ]
Dealt to graarrg [ 4d ]
Dealt to graarrg [ 6d ]
stark67 : Call ($0.50)
graarrg : Raise ($1)
ASWWW : Call ($1)
scowler : Call ($1)
nailbiter: Fold
wildvest: Fold
tbncrkz : Fold
Daffy Dave: Fold
Tx_Bob : Call ($0.75)
shaffeman: Call ($0.50)
stark67 : Call ($0.50)
*** FLOP *** : [ 3d 5s 3h ]
Tx_Bob : Check
shaffeman: Check
stark67 : Check
graarrg : Bet ($4)
ASWWW : Fold
scowler : Fold
Tx_Bob : Raise ($8)
shaffeman: Fold
stark67 : Fold
graarrg : Call ($4)
*** TURN *** : [ 3d 5s 3h ] [ Jh ]
Tx_Bob : Bet ($22)
graarrg : Raise All-in ($38)
Tx_Bob : Call All-in ($7.25)
*** RIVER *** : [ 3d 5s 3h Jh ] [ Qh ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $77.50 | Rake: $3
Board: [ 3d 5s 3h Jh Qh ]

URGH. I guess I got extra excited that the flop fit me so well (or so I thought). I felt that I had a very nice draw on the turn.. even if I was already beat. too often I had been pushed off decent hands because of someone raising with trips so I figured I wasn't NECESSARILY beat right off the flop. oh well. Thoughts? Auto-fold?

Hand 2:

Seat 1: XMANSDAD ($10.50 in chips)
Seat 2: nailbiter ($22.75 in chips)
Seat 3: wildvest ($19.00 in chips)
Seat 4: gaarp ($43.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Daffy Dave ($31.00 in chips)
Seat 6: hoavang ($78.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Sed8ing ($19.75 in chips)
Seat 8: redshay ($24.50 in chips)
Seat 9: graarrg ($52.75 in chips)
Seat 10: ASWWW ($45.50 in chips)
redshay : Post Small Blind ($0.25)
graarrg : Post Big Blind ($0.50)
Dealing...
Dealt to graarrg [ Ah ]
Dealt to graarrg [ 2s ]
Dealt to graarrg [ Jh ]
Dealt to graarrg [ 7s ]
ASWWW : Call ($0.50)
XMANSDAD: Call ($0.50)
nailbiter: Call ($0.50)
wildvest: Fold
gaarp : Call ($0.50)
Daffy Dave: Call ($0.50)
hoavang : Raise ($4.25)
Sed8ing : Fold
redshay : Fold
graarrg : Call ($3.75)
ASWWW : Call ($3.75)
XMANSDAD: Call ($3.75)
nailbiter: Fold
gaarp : Call ($3.75)
Daffy Dave: Call ($3.75)
*** FLOP *** : [ Js 5h 4s ]
graarrg : Check
ASWWW : Check
XMANSDAD: Check
gaarp : Check
Daffy Dave: Check
hoavang : Bet ($13)
graarrg : Raise ($48.50)
ASWWW : Fold
XMANSDAD: Fold
gaarp : Fold
Daffy Dave: Fold
hoavang : Call ($35.50)
*** TURN *** : [ Js 5h 4s ] [ Ad ]
*** RIVER *** : [ Js 5h 4s Ad ] [ Jd ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $120.25 | Rake: $3
Board: [ Js 5h 4s Ad Jd ]

I don't know what was going through my head on this one. This was probably at the peak of my tilt, but the reasoning I gave at the moment seemed alright. On the flop, I had a low draw, a spade draw, and top two. Unfortunately, in hindsight, my strategy apparently did not account for A23. Just give me an assurance that this play was absolutely retarded and I'll be on my way back to playing with sanity. The jack on the river saved me from getting scooped altogether, in the bright saving note of the day.

Bye bye magical win rate

#2 10-22-2005, 06:03 AM

#1 - don't bet the flop, it's too easy to get raised off your hand. Clear fold on the turn

#2 is a very easy push.
You've got nut lo draw + flush draw + top pair + backdoor nut flush draw + gutshot straight draw. You'd have to be VERY unlucky to get in with worst of it here (i.e. up against As25s5 or something). Having top pair here is the deciding factor, on this board it contributes a lot of equity against a naked low or low + draw. Without it you'd have to be more cautious. The other point about pushing here is that you don't want to be left with a tough decision on the turn if your low misses, you get counterfeited, or the flush hits and he pots. Get it all in while you've very likely got the best hand. Finally, pushing non nuts hands is great for your image, you'll get paid off much more on your miracle flops.

#3 10-22-2005, 08:29 AM

We all go through tough spells, and I realize that during these difficult times, sometimes we need the camaraderie of our peers; and, perhaps, a few words of comfort.

So, here we go: grow a dick and shut the [censored] up.

graarrg · #4 10-22-2005, 02:00 PM

Well, I'm not sure if this range of hands is significant enough to be concerned about, but A23x (just a bare one) cuts my outs a bit. Any 6,3, 2, or A (minus 4 spades, so 8 anti-outs) gives it the high and the low, and judging by the preflop raise, it isn't absurd that he would have a powerhouse like that, which might come with some other card that could hurt my equity (another A, a 6, spade suitedness). I dunno, I still think given even a non-tilt situation I would push that hand to be heads-up again, because my hand whoops anything that isn't a solid(er) 2-way.

This morning I woke up and there was something dangling inside my pants that I had never seen before.. can I get a positive ID on what it might be?

Wintermute · #5 10-22-2005, 02:21 PM

I seems pretty evident to me based on these results that in your case, Party poker is definitely rigged. Have you cashed out recently? Because this looks like a textbook case of cashout curse. If not that, then double-check that your pattern mapper license has been renewed and that you've downloaded and installed the latest patch. Because for DAMN sure a nut flush should never lose on a paired board.

Anyway, I hope your brutal cold spell ends soon! I myself once ended a session stuck one buyin, so I know first-hand the crushing sense of failure and defeat.

Wintermute · #6 10-22-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This morning I woke up and there was something dangling inside my pants that I had never seen before.. can I get a positive ID on what it might be?

[/ QUOTE ]
It may be one of those tampon extraction string things. Here's what you should do. Remove the tampon, and SEW IT UP.

#7 10-22-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm not sure if this range of hands is significant enough to be concerned about, but A23x (just a bare one) cuts my outs a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran some numbers:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

Non suited
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s 2s Ah Jh 237 569 181 70 0 142 425 0.642
3s Ac 2c 5d 90 181 569 70 142 0 425 0.358

7s 2s Ah Jh 276 592 228 0 0 142 402 0.652
Ac 3c 6d 2h 77 228 592 0 142 0 402 0.348

7s 2s Ah Jh 148 494 326 0 0 96 448 0.528
Ac Ad 6d 2h 146 326 494 0 96 0 448 0.472

7s 2s Ah Jh 203 490 248 82 84 0 483 0.608
Ac Ad Kd 2h 112 248 490 82 0 12 483 0.392

7s 2s Ah Jh 148 445 327 48 0 108 436 0.509
Ac Ad 3d 2h 188 327 445 48 108 0 436 0.491

7s 2s Ah Jh 224 545 229 46 0 142 425 0.613
As 3c 4h 2h 133 229 545 46 142 0 425 0.388

7s 2s Ah Jh 95 269 494 57 110 0 479 0.424
Ac 2h 5s 5d 182 494 269 57 0 16 479 0.576

Suited]

7s 2s Ah Jh 168 331 438 51 0 142 425 0.449
As 9s 3c 2c 209 438 331 51 142 0 425 0.551

The only thing that has you in terrible shape is higher flush draw + a current better high:

7s 2s Ah Jh 45 131 609 80 0 108 436 0.265
As 3s Ac 2h 334 609 131 80 108 0 436 0.735
</pre><hr />

You have everything else nicely in your pocket. Any better low draw + wrap draw you have crushed. Even A23s you're close to even money with - this is why the J top pair is so important to your equity in this situation. Without it I may well muck.

As I said you'd have to be extremely unlucky to be well behind here. Against his range I think you have a slight edge overall. Include the few hands where he may not have a low draw like AA3, AAxs, or a naked low like A2xx (we are talking about a low limit table here), and your equity is even better. It's a clear push.

graarrg · #8 10-22-2005, 10:13 PM

Yeah, judging by the evidence, I've come to the conclusion that Paradise poker is RIGGED. like, yesterday, I had a straight on the flop and I lost at the end.

and thanks for running the numbers, that clears it up for me. I feel better about my second decision.

P.S.: I think I might have Toxic Shock Syndrome, Wintermute, can you help me out with this?