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#1
07-12-2005, 03:18 AM
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pushing all in on the river w/ a set
Empire 200NL 8-handed. Villain (23/14/4 in 45 hands) has $222, I have him covered.
I get 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB 1 fold, 1 call, 2 folds, poster checks, 1 fold, I complete, Villain checks. Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I bet $7, Villain calls, the others fold. Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I bet $20, Villian calls. River is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I push. Who likes this play? Is a value bet a better idea? Other suggestions? 
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#2
07-12-2005, 03:34 AM
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Re: pushing all in on the river w/ a set
The pot is roughly $55 and you're throwing <$150 at it? Unless your image is that you'll make these kinds of overbets when you are bluffing, it seems like you would be better served to make a value bet.
Something seems strange about the villian though. What hand would they have to simply call you on the flop and turn, and then still be able to call the river and not beat you?
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#3
07-12-2005, 03:39 AM
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Re: pushing all in on the river w/ a set
This is entirely read dependent. The simple answer is yes if you think he will call your all in. Otherwise bet what you think he will call.
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#4
07-12-2005, 03:42 AM
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Re: pushing all in on the river w/ a set
[ QUOTE ]
This is entirely read dependent. The simple answer is yes if you think he will call your all in. Otherwise bet what you think he will call. [/ QUOTE ] Mike Caro had an article in CardPlayer a couple of months ago that did a good job of explaining the reasoning behind this which is a bit more complicated than it seems on the surface.
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#5
07-12-2005, 03:43 AM
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Re: pushing all in on the river w/ a set
Hence my comment "the simple answer is...".
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#6
07-12-2005, 04:02 AM
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Re: pushing all in on the river w/ a set
Value bet it Ryan. What hands do you see Villian calling the push that aren't beating you? JQ? I think you know that you should push the river only when you are certain your opponent has a strong hand, but you have an even stronger hand. Hands like this aren't going to be called often enough to net long term value imo.
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#7
07-12-2005, 04:20 AM
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Results.
Interesting that you guys didn't like the push.
He called w/ J3 and MHIG. I like the push here. For one thing, there's not going to be anything out there that beats me like 99% of the time. Secondly, it looks like a bluff. Thirdly, QJ (or other random 2 pair hands will call). I like the push here and I'd do it again.
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#8
07-12-2005, 04:31 AM
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Re: Results.
Like I said, do what you think will get a call. If he thinks he is the table sheriff, push. If you made big river bluffs previously against this guy, push. And let me be the first to say that I am probably not calling this push with two pair, unless you had given me reason to believe that it was a +EV call. There is no right answer to this questions, especially with little information on the villain. And be careful about results oriented.
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#9
07-12-2005, 04:58 AM
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How often does a push have to be called here for it to be +EV?
If we assume Villain will always call a 40$ value bet in this situation, what % of the time does he have to call a push for it to be the superior move?
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#10
07-12-2005, 11:55 AM
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Re: How often does a push have to be called here for it to be +EV?
I hope I did the math correctly, but I assumed equal stack sizes for ease of calculation. I came up with about 35% for a break even point if we assume Hero always has the better hand. Anyone want to tell me whether I am right or wrong here?
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