bad run of cards or playing worse?

[toots]

I'm still waiting for that to happen.

It's affecting my play. I'm no longer playing aggressively, since I'm sure that A2 is going to be a waste of money, A23 is going to get double-counterfeited (and miss my suit) and A234 is going to see three broadway cards flop.

I've turned into a totally passive, beat-down folding station. I've been getting dealt crap lately, and on the rare occasion when I do get dealt something nice (like A23K DS), I miss both suits and the high, and watch someone playing a middle wrap scoop.

I'm thinking seriously of taking my paltry winnings, cashing out before I lose more, and go buy something nice for myself instead of taking more abuse at the tables.

[Mr_J]

A couple of weeks ago (I think???) I dropped maybe 80-90bb. Cards getting counterfeited, draws not hitting etc and I think I got too attatched to high hands [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Sort of taught me that sh!t happens no matter form of poker you play. Just keep at it.

[Mr. Peanut]

I'm sorry to say it, but I have had about the same experience you describe in my brief foray into O/8. I felt ashamed after reading previous posts about how good the games were on Party and decided I should stick to Hold'em as their must have been more to this game than I had thought.

In a way I'm relieved to see that I'm not the only one who flops broadway cards with premium low hands and misses every nut low/nut flush combined draw.

Maybe if I can muster up enough optimism I will give it another go.

[Wintermute]

1.5k hands is not statistically significant. Perhaps you will find you are a 4 BB/100 player after many more hands rather than a 5.5 BB/100 player (7k isn't even enough to make really decisive conclusions), but 1.5k hands of -.5 BB/100? It means nothing, don't worry about it.

[graarrg]

Ok, this is good to know. The reason I made this thread in the first place was because I figured if I was beginning to push hands too far and dumping lots of BBs in hands on an individual basis it would pull my win rate down, but now it seems viable that I'm running bad and I'm expecting too much.

[beernutz]

It could be your play or perhaps it could be what is sometimes referred to as 'return to the mean'. 7bb/100 while not impossible to sustain over a lifetime of poker would be extremely challenging and IMO put you in the top 5% of online players. One way to look at your current downswing is that your previous 7bb winrate was inflated with good cards and now that is evening out. Of course, when people are in a tailspin they often play worse, pressing hands too far or seeing more flops than they normally would, so it could be a combination of normal downward variance combined with poorer decision-making brought on by the variance. No one can predict the future of course but perhaps this is not an abberation but rather part of the normal variance that in the end will produce your lifetime winrate.

</just my $.02>

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so over the past 1.5k hands, I've been doing miserably bad, like -.5BB/100 bad in comparison to my previous 7k of 5.5BB/100. I'm afraid it might not help that I just read kreiger's book and tried to apply a few of the concepts there (a few of which were contrary to my own play style), but I doubt it would make such a huge difference.

Anyway, my important question is.. Is it safe to say it's just bad luck so long as your W$SD and Won% WSF aren't dropping? thanks

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