Positive EV = 2 x's buy-in

mts · #1 11-08-2005, 06:58 PM

sounds like some bullshit someone made up. Feel free to provide some evidence though.

#2 11-08-2005, 07:05 PM

i don't have any. That's why I'm asking.

I have played 7 of the 2,000 + entrant tournaments on PP. I have 3 cashes + 1 first place for like $5,000. I would consider this both lucky and a by-product of my good play against a relatively weak field.

I feel like cashing is pretty much a matter of avoiding the mine feilds of donkey play and feel I could atleast "make the money" 30-40% of the time (even if the "money" is only a couple dollars profit).

I don't know what type of realistic EV i should be considering.

pfkaok · #3 11-08-2005, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
feel I could atleast "make the money" 30-40% of the time (even if the "money" is only a couple dollars profit).

[/ QUOTE ]

if you make the money that much then you'd have to be like the best player ever, and you'd have to be playing improperly around bubble time trying to survive.

#4 11-08-2005, 07:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you make the money that much then you'd have to be like the best player ever, and you'd have to be playing improperly around bubble time trying to survive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm definately not saying I'm a great tournament player... and I understand the significance of stealing pots around the bubble...

However, on the flip-side, if I have a healthy stack when the bubble is about to pop... I'm not going to risk a ton of chips just so I can pick up a pot or two.

In addition... I have found that once the bubble burst, the players go crazy (especially on Party Poker). I have moved up 4 to 5 payout spots just by being patient after the bubble pops.

pfkaok · #5 11-08-2005, 07:42 PM

well. i'm not talking about your skill, since i know very llitle about your play. i'm just saying taht making the money that much is not possible. you have no doubt been running well in your small sample size. even if you feel like you've just been running normal, there is so much hidden luck in those things that you can never really tell how good you're running. which is of course why you can never know your "true" ROI with tons of accuracy.

#6 11-08-2005, 07:47 PM

I concur...

I'm just thinking there has to be a way to justify playing extended winning and/or loosing streaks.

I have some friends that are closely tied to some big time players... and I've heard of 15-20 $10,000 buy-in tournaments with no cashes.

How do these players justify continued play?

pfkaok · #7 11-08-2005, 07:56 PM

well. i've only been playing lots of MTTs for a few months, and i've already had a few streaks in the 20's and 1 in the 30's of noncashes. its pretty simple. if you make the money 15% of the time, then 85% you won't.

going 20 in a row is going to happen (.85)^20 = 4%

its not common, but if you expect to play tons of MTTs you have to expect it to happen from time to time. even if you do have tons of EV in them. but the fact is, that losing 20 10k buyins in a row is a ton of money, and probably why most tourney pros take shares of each other. sufficient BR for those is enormous.

flyingmoose · #8 11-08-2005, 08:09 PM

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I'm just thinking there has to be a way to justify playing extended winning and/or loosing streaks.

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It has a lot to do with luck. I was fortunate enough to have a big windfall before my worst downswing, so the money lost didn't really affect me. If I had started with a huge downswing, I might not be playing MTTs right now.

flyingmoose · #9 11-08-2005, 07:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
feel I could atleast "make the money" 30-40% of the time (even if the "money" is only a couple dollars profit).

[/ QUOTE ]

You've been on a heater and you're wrong. Making the money that often would be insane -- and probably mean that you're playing too tight on the bubble.

[ QUOTE ]
I have played 7 of the 2,000 + entrant tournaments on PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't remember the last DAY when I only played 7 tournaments. Your sample is totally insignificant. Just keep playing and learning and don't worry too much about EV values at this point. Trying to estimate your "value" in a tournament will either elate or depress you -- and both feeling will get in the way of learning the game.

limon · #10 11-10-2005, 02:10 PM

it was posted either on phillip's or negreanus blog. it assumes you're in the top 25% of the field (better than 50% of the winning players) it probably is made up BS but its the best ive heard.