live flush board w/ trips

[iash]

1/2 Foxwoods NL. Forgive me if I confuse the positions or amounts, all from sleep deprived memory.

Villian #1 "Boston Guy" is fairly new to the table but I've already seen him make some poor plays (lose calls, frustrated all-ins on the river).

Villian #2 "That Guy" plays tons of hands, chases, is agressive and creative. You've all seen this guy, he calls a re-raise with 9Jo and hits his straight on the turn.

stacks:
Hero: $240ish
Boston Guy: $240ish
That Guy: $500+

Hero is in MP and is dealt 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I raise to $15 (standard preflop raise at this table). Boston Guy calls, That Guy calls.

Flop: (pot = $45) J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero bets $40.
Yeah i'm afraid of the flush, but I have to make the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] pay for it. Plus I can always fill up and take down a monster pot.
Boston Guy donk-raises to $80. That Guy flat-calls. Hero calls.


Turn: (pot = $285) Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks. Boston Guy is all in for $130. That Guy thinks for 5 seconds & calls $130.

Hero: ???

I have about $130 behind me. Pot is giving me 4 to 1. I'm only about 5 to 1 to win this hand, assuming nobody else has 2 pair or trips.

So I guess this is a laydown here?

Anybody else play this differently? Check/Call the flop and then fold to further aggression on later streets?

The reason I don't like that line is because I want to find out where I'm at, and as I've previously stated I hate giving the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a free turn.

iash

[GrunchCan]

glch. The minraise + flatcall on the flop convince me that a set is usually no good here. But you're 2:1 to fill up by the river, and 4:1 to sill up on the turn. Since you're going to have to call additional turn bets even if you miss, you're getting bad implied odds to just call. Therefore push or fold the flop. Which one you choose depends on how well you read your opponents to not have the flopped flush. If you're certian they have the flush, then fold. Of there's some real doubt, push.

[poboy]

Actually you're more like 4.5:1 to fill up on the river. Given that you could still have the best hand(in fact I think it is likely) I think I make this call. JMO

With two people in the pot here, I have a feeling the flush is most likely made by now.

HOWEVER, the pot is pretty large...
285+130+130 = 545
130/545 = 23.8%

You'll fill up about 20% of the time, so it's only a slightly negative EV call, if you believe one of them has the flush.

From TwoDimes if they are both on the draw:
9c9d - 76.2%
AsJc - 16.7%
KsQd - 7.1%

From TwoDimes if one made flush and one on draw:
9c9d - 21.4%
6s5s - 64.3%
AsQd - 14.3%

I'll assume noone has pocket jacks at this point.

SO...
Even in the worst-case scenario, you're 21.4% to win, but really needed about 23-24% to win with the pot odds.

So pretty much, if you think there's -any- chance they are both on the draw, I'd call.

The biggest problem is that with the all-in AND a call, you're in a tough spot to put them both on draws.

[jsnipes28]

Push the flop. As played call the turn. you are good here more often that not.

Nobody thinks JJ or QQ can be out there? I'm folding this one. you could be left with a 1 outer

[iash]

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting bad implied odds to just call. Therefore push or fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

By calling an additional $40 into a $250 pot? Seems like I'm getting the proper odds just to call and see the turn.

Two people have advocated folding over calling, I don't see the logic in that move.

As far as pushing the flop..I will probably only get called by a made flush, in which case i'm putting all my money in with the worst of it. This is surely -EV.

[iash]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody thinks JJ or QQ can be out there? I'm folding this one. you could be left with a 1 outer

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a possibility but given his aggression I believe That Guy would have re-raised preflop with such a holding (I've seen him do this). Boston Guy may have JJ, or QQ with a spade, but honestly my gut told he had a flush.

[unlucky513]

did you consider 3-betting the flop all in? seems like the easiest line to take given your reads on these clowns.

as played, i open-push the remainder of my chips into the pot on the turn.

[iash]

Turn: (pot = $285) Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks. Boston Guy is all in for $130. That Guy thinks for 5 seconds & calls $130.

Hero: Pushes

z28 was virtually dead on with one of his scenarios:

Boston Guy flips over um small suited connectors for the flopped flush 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (I think).

That Guy reveals A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Turn is the lovely 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and the guy who was furthest behind takes down the huge pot.