A 3k WSOP NL hand

[Sluss]

I'm not sure if we have enough of a read to pull a squeeze play here. If I was sure that UTG was loose and liked to open pots this would be the an interesting spot for a squeeze.

[SossMan]

TT.

[sam h]

I don't think its so clear cut as everybody believes. A push is quite possibly best.

Let's make a few simplying assumptions just to get a basic picture. Assume that nobody else plays, the UTG raiser has a hand range of AA-99, AKs-ATs, AK-AJ, and KQ, that UTG always calls or moves in and that the cold caller always folds.

You getting 1.4:1 and need to win 41.6% of the time to the turn. Against that hand range you are a 58.7-41.3 dog, so in that scenario its pretty damn close EV-wise!

Obviously there are assumptions here that are unlikely to hold. The cold caller might be trapping with a big pair, or somebody might wake up with a big pair behind you. On the other hand, you might have some folding equity, especially if the cold caller is not a gambling player.

Ideally, one would find a better spot. But the cost of waiting is not negligible. In six or seven hands your stack will be cut by almost 500 chips, or 16%. You just left the best two stealing positions and are unlikely to get anything premium to play with in the next couple deals. I think a gamble that is relatively even EV-wise might be your best option.

[Garland]

Our friend is in a tight spot with only about 5 rounds to play (depending on when limits increase). He's likely to get crap cards during this time, and I think this is the hand he needs to be willing to gamble with. 15x the BB with blinds and antes,

(a) he probably had enough to cause one of the players to fold
(b) with this pair, he's likely to have the best hand

Also in consideration, bigger stacks are probably willing to push more with marginal hands even UTG. They are afforded the liberty to try to bully the table, so that increases the range of hands to include stuff like A-weak, KQ, KJ, QJ...maybe even JT.

I think he needs to gamble here and try to take this pot at this time. I would rather go out here than be blinded away.

Garland

[ohkanada]

Well I decided to fold. When chatting with Garland later he thought it was a clear push. I later found out the 2nd player was a true donkey and literally could have any 2 decent size cards or connector. I really was worried that the 1st guy could have had a decent pair but I felt that they would both likely call my raise.

As it turns out I would have flopped bottom set. UTG checked, the other player bet and UTG folded.

I felt even though I was 15xBB I didn't need to make a desperation move and against a raise and a cold call thats what it seemed like. Maybe Dan Harringtons squeeze play against Arieh/Raymer last year with 2 crap cards is a similiar enough situation although his case he knew the players better than I did. Also his stack was bigger compared to the raise than mine.

Ken

[silversurfer]

Well, here's what I don't understand, especially seeing as how I just read HoH I and II and apparently you have too: why are so many of you willing to push here? Your M is about 9 or 10, you don't know whether or not these two are total donks or solid, and 77 is just too mediocre of a hand in the face of a UTG raise and cold-call. More importantly, you aren't getting the pot odds here (about 3 to 1, correct me if I'm wrong) when you are a 7.5 to 1 shot to hit the set.

Add it all up and there are too many unknowns for a push.

[ohkanada]

Actually M is 5 or 6 because there are antes. It is costing me 550 per round.

Ken

[SossMan]

this is a really interesting hand because your play is completely dictated by your stack size. (feel free to adjust stack sizes according to your risk tolerance):

with a smaller stack, like 2500, I think that this is an easy push, since you will likely get it heads up, with the good side of a coin flip and there's some dead money out there and you are running low on time. Hell, you might even take it down.
With less than 2500, you have to push simply for value and to avoid getting into -EV spots later.
ignoring the 3k-3.5k chip stack.

With something like 4k, I think that you have the perfect spot for a squeeze play because you will have enough to get him off hands like 99/TT and AQs, so you can push there, too.
With a stack of around 5k or more, you can play for set value.

The 3k chip stack really puts you in a pickle because you can likely wait and get in a little better spot, or you can push and likely be heads up.

anyway, interesting hand, and i don't think that you can mess it up either way (unless you flat call preflop).

[silversurfer]

My bad. And yes, like Soss said, it's a difficult hand. Good post. I still don't like the push, but it's not horrible. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[geardaddy]

I think you need to push here. I'm a cash player, but trying to get better at tourneys. I've just finished reading HOH II and thought this was a perfect hand for (SHAL) Structured Hand Analysis. Before reading this I would have found this an easy fold. When I read your post... I said easy fold. Then, I crunched the numbers...Not such an easy fold after all. Let's assume that you go all-in, you only need to have everyone fold 40% of the time to break even, and this assumes you lose every time your called!( which of course you wouldn't) Looking at M's your almost down to 5. If you go all-in and no one calls your over 9. If one person calls and you win your over 13.
Now lets calculate some real numbers. Lets say the blinds will only go in with A's through Q's and AKs/AKo. This would represent 2.8 percent times 2 equalling 5.6. Lets say the UG and caller are loose and will call with any pocket pair AK-AJ suited or non-suited and KQ suited or non-suited. This represents 11.1% times 2 players equalling 22.2. Add those toghther and you get called 27.8 % of the time.
This would mean that on 72.2 % of the hands you would earn $1925. Putting you way up on the EV, not to mention that you would be 50% against a lot of the hands that called you. The only way I think this would be a bad play is if you "knew" the UG had big pair. And nobody is that good!