strange hand against mike l. 20/40

[private joker]

Sort of crappy 20/40 game at Hollywood Park that got a lot better after mike l. left seat 1.

I'm in seat 5 on the button in this hand. Mike opens in MP1, some guy cold-calls in MP2 whom I don't have a read on yet but mike probably does.

Folded to me on the button with KK. 3 bets. The blinds get out of the way, mike and MP2 call. Three to the flop.

Flop comes down AQT. Mike checks, MP2 checks, I check.
Turn comes down Q. Mike checks, MP2 checks, I check.
River comes down J. Mike checks, MP2 bets, I call...

i would rather raise the river b/c i think that there is a better chance that mp2 pays you off w/ a hand that you beat than that mike overcalls w/ a worse hand that he would've folded to a raise.

also, i don't like the flop check. follow through on your preflop aggression - if you don't like the response you get on the flop (e.g., 2 calls) then you can take your free card on the turn.

[goofball]

Bleh. I think an A or a Q bets this turn. Since they both checked I think you should bet. Mike will likely fold but MP2 could want to call with a T or JJ or 99 or something, I dunno. River call is ok but do you think mike is overcalling here ever given the previous action? (I don't know if that's what you were going for, I think the call is ok because I can't think of any hands that you beat that call your river raise).

[private joker]

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I think the call is ok because I can't think of any hands that you beat that call your river raise

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This is why I called -- not to get mike's overcall. (IMO, mike is either folding or checkraising this river, and I'm hoping/praying/fairly sure a checkraise isn't in the works because Mike can't count on the river being bet the way the flop and turn went down -- I think he'd bet/3-bet any hand he would c/r the river with.) A river raise is called by a hand I'm chopping with or losing to, and getting 3-bet by any boat.

[GuyOnTilt]

Why check the flop?

GoT

[private joker]

I think I'm getting checkraised a lot of the time by mike l., and furthermore I won't even know what it means. He's in perfect position to shut MP2 out for 2 cold on the flop, and the pot is 5BB before the flop is even dealt so it's worth him checkraising both an A and a hand worse than mine.

If I'm ahead, there isn't much danger in giving a free card really. Hands like QJ and JT only have 2 outs. If I'm behind, I'd love a free shot at a 4-outer or 6-outer.

And lastly, though this is in no way the primary reason, I shouldn't always be continuation-betting flops like this with hands like KK when playing against a 2+2er/TAG like mike l.

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I think the call is ok because I can't think of any hands that you beat that call your river raise

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This is why I called -- not to get mike's overcall. (IMO, mike is either folding or checkraising this river, and I'm hoping/praying/fairly sure a checkraise isn't in the works because Mike can't count on the river being bet the way the flop and turn went down -- I think he'd bet/3-bet any hand he would c/r the river with.) A river raise is called by a hand I'm chopping with or losing to, and getting 3-bet by any boat.

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i don't necessarily agree with this. from my experience in live 20/40 games (on the east coast - i hear w. coast is even more ridiculous) you will get your raise paid off by any ace, some kind of oddly played q9s, q8s, or similar, and maybe even some other stuff.

though these would be strangely played hands if he has them, so would any of his FH hands that would 3-bet you (except jj). people play really badly at this level.

so i still think it's a raise for value, although close. also, i think mike is folding here nearly always, even if you don't raise.

[private joker]

Well, one potential benefit to raising the river is that in case I *do* have MP2 beat and he is betting with some A, and Mike has a hand like KTs (which if he had, wouldn't he lead the river himself?), I could get him to fold half the pot with a raise -- since he'd have to call 2 cold not closing the action hoping he's chopping.

But I don't think that happens nearly as often as I get worse hands to fold and better hands to reraise me. Also, I disagree with your assessment of how 20/40 games play; they can be juicy, but not so donkish that someone will call a river raise on a board this scary with one pair.

pj,

my experience in such games is limited, but i think an A pays you off sometimes (AJ almost always), and 3 Qs w/ a kicker below T will always pay off.

though these hands don't make much sense (wouldn't we hear from him earlier?), neither do any of the FH hands aside from JJ, for the same reason.

that's why i think it's close but i lean toward raising - it is very unlikely he has a hand that beats yours and 3-bets (jj being the lone logical exception), and it is also unlikely that he has a hand that you beat that he played this way and decided to bet the river. i think the latter range is larger than the former, though.

back to the flop which i meant to comment on earlier:

i think you should bet it. if you are checking flops like these occasionally, then you must also check sometimes when you flop nicely, or mike and similar players will notice. the caveat is that in multiway pots, checking in last position w/ a very good hand is usually a big mistake (missing value + giving free cards) and so you would almost never want to do this. thus, i prefer always betting on good/bad flops to mixing in occasional checks when the flop is good/bad.

also i think it's pretty unlikely that mike cr's you on this flop. first, from his perspective it nailed your hand range, so he is unlikely to be cr'ing to take the pot away. second, many of the hands that would have hit him hard he probably would've capped preflop - aa, qq, ak, maybe tt. third, if he did have one of these hands, or aq, or at, i think there's a good chance he would lead the flop and trap the dude in the middle as opposed to shutting him out.

[DMBFan23]

why is AJ more likely than any other ace to pay off?