How do you play the nuts here.

[Cornell Fiji]

I have not yet looked at results but I assume a heart fell or the board paired and you lost... this is irrelevant.

I think that you have to push here.
It is much harder for one of your opponants to have the nut straight and be freerolling because of your paired jacks with your 9. If I really thought someone was freerolling I would lay down here but would never make that assumption or laydown online.

So you have $6.70 invested in a pot and it is $53 to call. If you lose the main pot here then you can always win the sidepot with MP2 (hopefully he has the trips that dont improve and you make a slight win for the hand -- what is his stack?)

Running the 3 hands (flush draw, top set, your hand) on 2 dimes you have more than 33% equity to win this hand (not even mentioning the fact that you can win the sidepot with MP2, plus you have extra money ($16) in there before the call.

(I am assuming that the set of queens has one heart in his hand.)

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Jc 9c Jd 236 35.44 430 64.56 0 0.00 0.354
3c 4d Ah 2h 166 24.92 500 75.08 0 0.00 0.249
Qs Qd 3d 4h 264 39.64 402 60.36 0 0.00 0.396


Unless you are risk adverse you should definitely call here. Skalansky would call... thats for sure.

-Steve

[bengali]

"Running the 3 hands (flush draw, top set, your hand) on 2 dimes you have more than 33% equity to win this hand (not even mentioning the fact that you can win the sidepot with MP2, plus you have extra money ($16) in there before the call."

since our hero probably is tied for the nuts you cant really assume that one of the hands are ladies and the other the flush draw...

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you are risk adverse you should definitely call here. Skalansky would call... thats for sure.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about Skalansky, but I bet Bubba Cioffalone would fold this...and he plays PLO goot. Actually, I doubt Skalansky would play on either.

This is clearly a good time to get out, cos you're likely tied and just praying one of many scare cards don't come so you can split the pot. Fuggedabadit.

[Cornell Fiji]

Is it that safe to assume that someone holds J9 here when there are only 2 ways left that they can make it?

You all seem to be assuming that one of the players in this hand definitely has the J9 and is most likely freerolling. I have checked the results but don't want to be results oriented and I wonder how you all can make that exact assumption when there are so many other (more likely) holdings that they would be making this bet with

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it that safe to assume that someone holds J9 here when there are only 2 ways left that they can make it?

You all seem to be assuming that one of the players in this hand definitely has the J9 and is most likely freerolling. I have checked the results but don't want to be results oriented and I wonder how you all can make that exact assumption when there are so many other (more likely) holdings that they would be making this bet with

[/ QUOTE ]

When the pot is raised the size of the pot and then re-raised the size of the pot again don't you give someone credit for at least having the nuts or a draw that's more than 50% favorite on such a coordinated board?

[dogsballs]

Even if you are in the lead on teh flop, you almost certainly won't have the nuts at the river. These guys like their hands and you want to dodge all the turn and river cards that will kill you.

The vulnerable nuts on the flop with no redraws in PLO when you're not HU is shaky to say the least. When 2 others like their hands a lot you'll be hard pressed to be making money by shoving chips in.

[Cleveland Guy]

I think the assumptions for what the others are holding are way off. I don't see many people calling that big a bet with nake trips, or a nake nut flush draw. I have to think they have trips +Flush Draw, or straight + flush Draw, or Trips + Straight draw here.