Lost: I have JJ, 2nd straight and lots of action

[twang]

Here is a hand where I was totally lost from the flop and forward. Comments?

Reads: Sat down just a few minutes ago, but MP1 and MP2 are über-loose and quite aggressive from what I have seen.

(no converter support from Pacific so I´m doing it the old way. hope I got it right)


Pacific 1/2, 9-handed. Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

MP3 posts big blind.
Preflop: UTG calls, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop (11 sb): 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, UTG folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

I put MP2 on a weak Q. But given my read on him, he could have anything. I should have 3-bet here, right?

Turn (9.375 bb): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls

Picked up an OESD, but I had no idea what to do.

River (13.25 bb): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 caps, 3 calls.

Ok, hit the straight, but I am very worried about the action. Still, with my reads and the potsize I feel I have to call it down.

Final pot: 29.25 bb



Results in a couple of hours. Flame away.


/twang

[bengali]

Well you only had 2nd pair against 4 others so on the flop I dont see why you should bet, let alone call a raise, let alone raise the raise.
If you say MP1 and MP2 are loose I wouldnt worry very much about them in the end. Is MP3 the kind of player who would call a raised flop with only the gutshot KJ? Anyhow, since you have two of the key card jacks, you have to call the river down IMHO.

[skunkworks]

Flop: MP2 just raised and MP3 coldcalls on a somewhat coordinated board. Whether you're inclined to believe that MP2 has the goods or not is based on your reads, but keep in mind that there are other players in the hand who are indicating some strength or that they've caught a piece of the flop. So do not 3-bet here against a bettor, a raiser, and a cold-caller unless you hate money. Smooth-call and check-fold the turn unimproved.

Turn: This counts as an improvement. Check-call (you'd hate to bet out, get raised, and end up having to pay 2BB to see if you hit your straight).

River: MP1 does not have the KJ straight (he would've C/R'ed the turn after everyone calls). MP2 could hold KJ. I think MP3's got something like QJ. Cap it yourself here and expect to see a split pot. If anyone's got KJ... man that'd suck.

[skunkworks]

[ QUOTE ]
Well you only had 2nd pair against 4 others so on the flop I dont see why you should bet, let alone call a raise, let alone raise the raise.
If you say MP1 and MP2 are loose I wouldnt worry very much about them in the end. Is MP3 the kind of player who would call a raised flop with only the gutshot KJ? Anyhow, since you have two of the key card jacks, you have to call the river down IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting out is the superior play. If you're scared that someone has a Q, you'd rather bet and fold to a raise than check-call all the way and waste that money. You'll make more money when you're ahead and lose less when you're behind. Once Hero has been raised, he's getting some good odds to call and see if the turn improves him.

[twang]

I figured there was a good chance that I had the best hand on the flop so I think betting out was the best action here. And I wasn´t too surprised that MP2 raised that flop - I´ve seen him betting and raising with nothing quite a few times before. MP1 was exactly same: any two will do. I thought that if I bet into one of them, one of them will raise and hopefully push out MP3 (which just sat down and I didn´t have a read on) and UTG.

Nevertheless, I feel pretty uncomfortable in situations like this; the board doesn´t look too scary but I could very well be up against a big draw, like JT. Plus that fact that you never know about maniacs. They can catch a hand too.

[twang]

Thanks for replying guys.

Here are the results (in white):

<font color="white">

Hero: J spade J heart (straight, Q high)
MP1: J diamond 2 diamond (straight, Q high)
MP2: K diamond J club (straight, K high)
MP3: didn´t show

MP2 wins 29.25 bb

Well, at least my reads were good. MP1 coldcalled with J2s and MP2 with KJo. I still can´t figure out why MP2 raised the flop behind a betting PF-raiser (Hero) with only a gutshot straight and one overcard.

And what the hell was MP3 doing, waking up all of a sudden on the river, then being beat by straights? Did he caught a two pair? Had he been chasing with a pair of 8s and rivered a set? I have no idea.

This is why I have problems with maniacs; I always assume they are bluffing with nothing or that they have some small part of the flop, usually second/third pair or a weak top pair. I could never imagine that he´d push it with a gutshot straight to the nuts.

</font>

/twang

[btspider]

PF standard.

Flop is good. Bet for value and to see what others do. You have too good a hand to check-fold or give yourself no protection/information by check-calling. A check-raise is not going to accomplish much protection here when the most aggressive players are to your left. A check-through on the flop would be terrible.

Turn. Check-call. You improved and need to see the river. There is no reason to bet and possibly be raised again.

River. Bet and call a raise. This may be checked through. Everyone sees the 4 to the straight.

As is, on the river.. scary. A cap accomplishes nothing. At best you are splitting this pot. Try to keep the other players in. You have 2 of the J's, leaving 2 more. Yet 3 people like their hand. If the board was scarier and there was more than one better hand, then you might be able to fold. Here, I think you pray for the split.

I only fear MP3 unless MP2 would aggressively play a gutshot. MP1's cap is very odd given the turn call closing the action.

I put MP1 on the third J.
MP2 on a 99, 22, or Q9.
MP3 has the fourth J. Either KJ, QJ, JT, or J9 to have cold-called the flop.

[VTDuffman]

Someone, please make fun of my math here, and then tell me where I went wrong in my thinking...but I'm trying to learn here...

On the flop, say I am holding a KJ. There are 11 sb in the pot pre-flop. 2 bets in front of me, which is 13 sb. I am on a gutshot straight draw to the nuts. My chances of making that straight on the turn are 1:10, and my chances of making it by the river are 1:5 or approximately 4:1 against...

Well, If there are 13 sb, which == 6.5 BB...a raise here would still be giving me 6.5:1, and I have the added benefit of gathering info about the pf raiser. If he calls, I can guess that he probably has pocket pair lower than QQ or overcards like AJ or AK, and if he re-raises he probably has overpair KK or AA, or TPTK AQ.

So...is the flop raise here holding KJ to a pfraiser such a bad move?

[DrBob]

I think you're mixing up calling a raise, and betting. Your calculations are the kind that's appropriate for calling. When betting (not counting a bluff to induce a fold) it's more appropriate the view only the odds on the NEW money that goes into the pot. So the odds here are the money put in THIS ROUND, from when you bet/raise, by others, to the money you put in yourself. This can only be estimated, but will never be more than the number-of-opponents to 1. Clearly much less than gutshot odds here.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
So...is the flop raise here holding KJ to a pfraiser such a bad move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think its that bad. Its quite aggressive though. I might do it if MP3 was tight and I could buy the button for free card potential. Hero would need to not be an overaggressive type. Seeing the turn for 3 bets is terrible if you could have seen it for 1. Hero would 3-bet AA, KK, QQ, AQ, and KQ. That's a fair number of hands. Would Hero bet AJ from villian's perspective? If not, you are hoping for AK, JJ, TT and a 3-bet would come more often than not.

Also, if Hero does not 3-bet, your K outs are not looking too good, so your hand value is banking almost entirely on the gutshot.