Bellagio 15/30 Hand

[Chris Callahan]

I was the pair of jacks who sucked out. I talked to some successful highlimit players about the hand, and they thought I should have folded my hand on the flop at 12 to 1, since I am clearly beat and drawing to two outs or runner runner. I agree that I am almost always beat here, but can I actually fold in this massive pot?

One player also thought I should have folded for the two bets on the turn as he felt someone will have a made flush a large part of the time. I don't agree with this assessment. Many players will continue aggressively with an overpair on the turn to "maximize their chance of winning the pot", or because they think they're ahead. I think my six legitimate straight outs will be good way more than 50% of the time, trips will frequently hold up if I get there, and a flush will sometimes win the pot for me. For what it's worth my read at the time was that the particular player on the button did not have a flush.

The same player also thinks the kings made a bad play on the turn since UTG+1 will often have him beat and make him pay three bets to see the river.

I definitely feel the tens should have put one more raise into this pot.

--- Callahan