Possibility of losing 100 BB's in one session?

[Vehn]

You are my new favorite poster.

[Nate tha' Great]

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I never lost 100bb's in a session in my life be it 8 hours of 48hrs. you probably had some bad luck but need to tidy up your game as well

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Say I have a win rate of 2/BB hr and a standard deviation of 16 BB/hr. I will have a -100 BB downswing in an 8 hour session once in 200 times or so.

Say I aim to play 25 hours a week, and 3 tables at a time ... that works out to 3900 table hours or about 500 equivalent 8-hour blocks of play each year. I should *expect* to have a -100 BB run a couple times a year playing this many hands.

Poker players are of two categories when it comes to extremely bad runs:

1) Those who have experienced one;
2) Those who will.

[Noo Yawk]

Hi Nate,

Bad downswings are a fact of poker. The problem is you are only using probability to detrmine the cause. After a certain amount of loss there has to come a point where even a great player says I give up, and that point is way before 100 BB's. The simple fact is even above average players that have a solid game when winning, are extremely prone to a deteriorating game and poor judgement when losing.

If You are talking about multi tabling on line, I would tend to view each table as a seperate session. But for arguments sake lets just say you don't. There are so many choices on-line for game selection, why not just leave the table that isn't going well for you? Why not come back another time? Why not just concentrate on one game for the rest of the session? There are plenty of ways to avoid a loss that big. Most people simply aren't as good when they're losing. The only exception I see is in a home game with reasonable stakes for your bankroll where you're having fun.

Ask a poker player who's stuck 100 BB's why their still playing and they'll tell you because the games good and they have an edge. Ask a craps player the same question when they're losing a relative amount and you'll get the real answer: "I'm not leaving until I get my freakin' money back".

[MikeGuz]

Playing correctly?

Is that based on this table or any table.

The "LONG RUN" does anyone know how long that is?

To answer your question it is certainly possible to lose that sort of money in that time. Playing good or not.

A lot of newer players make the mistake of caling a lose agressive player a fish when in fact they play really well after the flop. Of course if the deck is hitting a guy not much you can do in the shore run - BTW how long is the long run anyway?

[Posititve EV]

Thanks for all the informative posts....

I would say the long run is 1,400 hours since that is the amount of time it takes to eliminate all luck and an expert player will at least break even guranteed.

I agree that I should of tightened up a lot more than I did. But I also should mention along with the player who couldn't lose their were 2 guys who just said they lost over 10K each in black jack. They seemed to just want to slow up their gambling loses and where playing tons of hands and flat calling showing down middle and bottom pairs. The game looked so juicy I just had to call some pre flop raises.

Also I'm not trying to complain about my bad beats. I wish they didn't happen but its a fact of poker, as long as I made the correct play based on a positive expectation I am fine. I did make mistakes and looking back I should have got up when I was down 50 BB's but I just kept it in my head that a game like this doesn't come up that often...at least 3 of the 10 people were playing worse than I'd ever seen.

So say I lost 70BB's in that 8 hour span does that make any difference...has some of you been through that. Preflop was basically raised almost every hand with raising continuing through the whole hand...does this turn the game into a 40/80 and thus cut my 100 bb's in half.

Thanks for all the help I have learned more from this board in the past week then I have playing over 200 hours in BM card rooms.

[Senor Choppy]

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If You are talking about multi tabling on line, I would tend to view each table as a seperate session. But for arguments sake lets just say you don't. There are so many choices on-line for game selection, why not just leave the table that isn't going well for you? Why not come back another time? Why not just concentrate on one game for the rest of the session? There are plenty of ways to avoid a loss that big.

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That's like saying there are plenty of ways to avoid a roulette wheel hitting red 10 times in a row.

No matter who you are, 100 bb downswings will happen even if you play like a god, and no amount of changing tables, switching seats, or putting 24 hours in between sessions is going to change that.

[thwang99]

If you get arrested by that policewoman for posting a bad beat, I've got tons to post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] - Tony

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If You are talking about multi tabling on line, I would tend to view each table as a seperate session. But for arguments sake lets just say you don't. There are so many choices on-line for game selection, why not just leave the table that isn't going well for you? Why not come back another time? Why not just concentrate on one game for the rest of the session? There are plenty of ways to avoid a loss that big.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's like saying there are plenty of ways to avoid a roulette wheel hitting red 10 times in a row.

No matter who you are, 100 bb downswings will happen even if you play like a god, and no amount of changing tables, switching seats, or putting 24 hours in between sessions is going to change that.

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You're taking my point out of context, and nowhere did I mention seat changes. Again, if you play ONE session for EIGHT HOURS and take BAD BEAT after BAD BEAT your FIRST TIME PLAYING A HIGHER LIMIT, then there is no way you are playing nearly as well as you believe.
You do have options, and leaving, dropping limits, finding a better game are all valid choices to make loooong before droping 8 racks in a 20-40 game. If your playing like a god and we know that for a fact, then the variance is of course likely. But to assume you're playing like a god after dropping 100BB's is a ridiculous assumption. These swings happen in ONE SESSION almost always for one reason: The player insists on overestimating themselves relative to the game and lose their freakin' minds.

[Turning Stone Pro]

played 8-5o for two cold the other night, like you all advised me to. Took a huge pot down!

Sorry that I doubted the Tommy worshippers! I'm back on board!

[MMMMMM]

Now you are learning.