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Old 12-01-2005, 08:39 PM
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Default Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

I've read several discussions about whether or not the fish will eventually go away. Thats hard to predict, but one that is is clear is that online poker would be an extremely attractive job for individuals in developing countries. This is the one unique chance to participate in the USA/European economy with few barriors to entry. Given that they are willing to work in a factory, as doctors, computer programmers..etc for a fraction of the wage of a USA worker, why wouldn't one expect them to play poker at similar pay scale? Assuming that they required a premium of 100% of their normal job, then the tables would tighten by about 2 levels. E.G. 5/10 would start plaing like 15/30 tables of today..etc. Basically there would have to be a shift down until it no longer became advantageous for them to leave their jobs, where as now (although probably not in equilibruim) its basically limited to the point where USA/European workers find it advantageous. The net impact, based on my guesswork is that the average pro would lose about 50% of his earning ability. Online poker hasn't caught on in south america like it has here, but I see no reason why it won't.

Those fish have less $ to give away while the sharks can consume with the best of them. Globalization of poker, will not be a good thing for current pros in my view.

I had posted this on another forum among peers who I highly respect. They didn't seem to be in agreement with me, so I thought I would seek out more opinions here. Fire away!

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Limit Tables Rate/Hour % of population Foreign Job Muliple of Job Mult after 2 Level Tightening Impact on US Pro
1/2 2 3 13 45.0% $2.8 4.81 2.3 -55.6%
2/4 4 3 22 35.0% $4.0 5.39 2.6 -43.5%
3/6 6 3 30 24.0% $5.9 5.15 2.5 -35.7%
4/8 8 3 39 12.0% $8.5 4.54 2.3 -36.7%
5/10 10 3 47 6.0% $11.9 3.95 2.0 -47.2%
10/20 20 2 61 3.0% $16.7 3.66 1.9 -64.7%
15/30 30 2 89 1.0% $23.3 3.82 1.9 -73.9%
30/60 60 2 173 0.5% $32.7 5.30
60/120 120 2 341 0.3% $45.7 7.46
</pre><hr />

* Included $5 per hour for Rakeback/Bonus
** Percent of population is the percent that is mentally capable of beatting the level, not the percent that I think would beat that level.
*** In reality, I think at equilibrium players would not require a premium to their current job pay rate, do to the flexible life which poker allows.
**** This ignors the obvious tightening of the game due to an improving player base.
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:00 PM
crazy canuck crazy canuck is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

Currently developing countries have poor internet access and computers are relatively expensive. But this might change in a few years, so you might be right. It is a funny concept tho....even poker professionals will be outsourced!
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:05 PM
lefty rosen lefty rosen is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish. I remember keeping 80 cents in Paradise poker and playing the 2 max NL games and turning that into about 60 bucks before I got sick of the game and seeing a bunch of mainland Chinese players who played like super rocks. It was probably because 2 dollars US was the equivalent of 25 dollars US to them...... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:12 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
Currently developing countries have poor internet access and computers are relatively expensive. But this might change in a few years, so you might be right. It is a funny concept tho....even poker professionals will be outsourced!

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but the economics are still there to support buying more expensive equipment, you don't even need high end stuff to play poker. Also public internet kiosks/stores are common, these would easily be more profitibable if they were filled with 30 people playing poker 1/2 limit and spitting the winnings, rather than 30 people paying the store 20 cents a minute to surf.

I think it will be exported quickly, unless poker sites segregate the players. I'm hopeful, if the government ever legalizes and regulates the sites, that they require it to be US vs US only.. it even makes sense when one considers that it would limit capital drain from the usa.
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:18 PM
SomethingClever SomethingClever is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

You forget one key point: Most people suck at poker, and always will.
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:23 PM
gabyyyyy gabyyyyy is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

I don't buy the argument that the fish will eventually run out of money.

Tons of suckers go to vegas to play blackjack and slots every year and lose. Yet they go back year after year.
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:23 PM
FlFishOn FlFishOn is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

The race to the bottom will be slow. Many barriers will keep the turd world out of the game for the bulk of this decade at least.

The quantity of collusive cheating will spike as the heat gets turned on and that will kill WRs first. Bots to follow.
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:24 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
You forget one key point: Most people suck at poker, and always will.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I didn't. I assumed profibility above the rake remained, just at lower magnitudes to to an influx of serious players (sharks) who found playing to be advantageous over their profesional career in a depressed economy. The same thing would happened if every winning USA player decided to play poker rather than have a job. The win rakes would fall like a rock. Luckily many winning players have a greater earnings potential at their real job. This is not the case in other countries.

USA wages are ridiculous compared to those in other countries playing poker should/will be a much more attractive career people in countries with high unemployment in low wages.
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:25 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
The race to the bottom will be slow. Many barriers will keep the turd world out of the game for the bulk of this decade at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you be willing to name a few of the many?
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Old 12-01-2005, 09:28 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
I don't buy the argument that the fish will eventually run out of money.

Tons of suckers go to vegas to play blackjack and slots every year and lose. Yet they go back year after year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said they would. I said that, in effect, the number of sharks would increase to a point where the distribution of the fishes money is no longer attractive for the next shark to start playing. This level will be set based on what the lowest shark requires, given the pay differential the shark from the developing countrie will have the lowest requirements. Hence, they replace the USA pro.. or the USA pro accepts lower wages.
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