10/20 - 88 in blind battle

Yeti · #1 09-06-2005, 09:01 PM

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($2410.50)
Hero ($2638.50)
BB ($4588)
UTG ($2559)
MP ($2000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $10.
3 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $50, BB calls $40.

Flop: ($120) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $118, BB calls $118.

Turn: ($356) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $300, BB calls $300.

River: ($956) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero?

psyduck · #2 09-06-2005, 09:07 PM

invites a bluff?

Yeti · #3 09-06-2005, 09:13 PM

In fact basically everyone is going to say check so I'll move on.

River: ($956) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $600, Villain raises to $1700, Hero?

Rococo · #4 09-06-2005, 09:34 PM

This one feels a lot different than the hand that you posted earlier. I think that you are going to see the nuts, or close to it, pretty often here.

If Villain made this play with a set of 2s, he is either an evil genius or a total donkey. Unless you think that he is one or the other, I vote for a fold.

DonButtons · #5 09-06-2005, 10:20 PM

I call...

Im guessing he would raise the turn with 10 9 and a flush? It just seems like a missed flush draw more than 10 9 or a flush.

neon · #6 09-06-2005, 11:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($2410.50)
Hero ($2638.50)
BB ($4588)
UTG ($2559)
MP ($2000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $10.
3 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $50, BB calls $40.

Flop: ($120) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $118, BB calls $118.

Turn: ($356) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $300, BB calls $300.

River: ($956) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop, I usually raise more here, to $70 or $80, but that's just me.

Flop and turn look perfect. If he got there on the turn w/ 910, so be it, you're still drawing live, and I think you've got him crushed way more often than he has a straight or flush.

River is obviously the interesting street; I see a couple possibilities. One is to bet. You aren't folding anything that you beat, but you just might induce a strong jack, two pair, a smaller set or an overpair to call a bet. A $300-$400-ish bet might induce a call from the weaker made hands in his likely range, but it also might induce a big bluff raise from a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that missed. Of course, he's also raising a flopped flush, and probably also a turned straight, so value-betting might leave you in a precarious spot. A pot-sized bet screams strength, and would probably only get called by a smaller set or an overpair amongst the hands you're beating, if that. An overbet/open push may let him make a thin call, putting you on the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or air, and also precludes him from raising you on the river and putting you in a tough spot. Of course, a push isn't going to fold any hands that have you beat, so I'm not super wild about that option either.

Second, you can check-call. I'm not sure if this is weak-tight or not, since you and villain both have plenty left behind, but I've certainly gotten burned in situations like this by treating a set like the nuts and ignoring the very real possibility that villain flopped a flush. I guess it probably depends quite a bit upon a read from villain. This certainly is your best option if villain has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or air or whatever, but also leaves money on the table from hands like a strong jack w/ a big spaid that would likely call one more street but that won't bet.

I was also considering a CR on the river as a potential third option, but I think I'd like this idea a lot more if the table was fuller, and this wasn't a blind v. blind hand, so that villain's holding would likely be a bit more defined. I actually don't see a ton of value in a CR on this river now that I think about it in that villain is folding everything we beat once we CR, and we're effectively paying off his stronger made hands by doing so. On the other hand, however, some tricky villains might interpret a river CR as a bluff, and make a really thin call . . .

So I guess I'm pretty torn between check-calling and betting, and for some reason I really don't like a value-bettish sized lead, or a pot-sized bet, so that leaves an overbet/push? (I actually started typing this post a while ago, and just came back to finish it, and saw the river action you've since posted. This is exactly the crappy situation I would be afraid of getting myself into by making a bet that size; he could be making that raise w/ a decent range of hands, some of which you're beating, and some of which you're behind).

I'm not convinced that check-calling is right, but I do think that if you're gonna bet, you either have to be ready to call any size raise, or bet enough that you're committing your stack.

I could, of course, be waaaaaaay off the mark here.

-neon.

Yeti · #7 09-06-2005, 11:51 PM

It's late and I'm off to bed. I agree with a lot of your post; note that it's PL though.

I'll update the thread in the morning. Thanks again.

creedofhubris · #8 09-07-2005, 12:50 AM

I think check/call river is superior for obvious reasons. As played, I think you can find a fold.

neon · #9 09-07-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think check/call river is superior for obvious reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it really *that* obvious that villain has either a hand like the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a better made hand than ours, and not a hand w/ which he'll call one more bet on the river but won't bet himself?

I'm not saying that I prefer betting, as there's really no bet Yeti can make that will leave him in a comfortable situation if villain raises pot, but I'm just not nearly as confident as you that checking is the best option here. I understand that checking allows us to exercise pot control, making it easier to get to a showdown, and may induce villain to bluff a hand such as the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or air. I just also think there are lots of hands villain could have (a strong jack, esp. w/ a big spade, an overpair, a smaller set, or a weird two pair) that we'd be leaving money on the table against by checking the river.

[ QUOTE ]
As played, I think you can find a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm. I think I might call way too much, but I think I make a crying call here.

Yeti · #10 09-07-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced that check-calling is right, but I do think that if you're gonna bet, you either have to be ready to call any size raise, or bet enough that you're committing your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Afterwards I began to agree 100% with this statement.

At the time it seemed an easy fold, others agreed with me. I folded. Villain proudly showed KsKd. What's sick is it seems obvious he thought it was the best hand.

Gah.

The thing is, would he really slowplay a flopped flush on the turn? Even the nut flush? If we assume he would only just call with the nut flush and raise the rest, that is such a tiny range of hands - perhaps the chance of a bluff on this river is a lot greater than I realise.

Pretty annoying hand. I still think there is tons of value in a bet.

After the first reply I realised I had posted 2 HU middle set hands. This was coincidental although I realise some will try to use this as justification for going broke in the other.