Bluffing Frequency

[mecha]

Bluffing Frequency Scenario...

Heads Up Situation (Player A vs. Player B, NL Holdem)
Pot = X
Player A makes a bet of 1000X on the river

According to the proper bluffing frequency in "The Theory of Poker" as I understand it, when Player A makes this bet, he should be bluffing 50% of the time, because he is giving his opponent 1:1 odds on the call. Should Player B be calling this incredibly huge bet 50% of the time since this would be the correct calling frequency of such a bet? Something is wrong here. Please help.

[mecha]

I forgot to mention a couple of assumptions.
1. Player A knows he can ONLY beat a bluff.
2. I made a mistake on the calling frequency, as it is not 50%, it doesn't matter what Player A does over the long run.

[bobman0330]

This is correct... You should be making a 1000x bluff about as often as you should be making a 1000x value bet, which is equal to exactly never. With a more realistic number like twice the pot or the size of the pot, then your value bets should outweigh your bluffs 3-2 or 2-1.

As you pointed out, optimal bluffing frequency has nothing to do with how often you call. Indeed, if your opponent is bluffing at the optimal rate, the difference in EV between calling and folding is 0, so it doesn't matter. Unless you're playing with someone for a very very long period, you can always fold to a large or very large river bet without giving anything away.

[mecha]

This is very counter-intuitive if you are the caller. The bigger the bet, the more likely they are bluffing, and the greater calling frequency one should have. The smaller the bet, the more likely you should fold.

[Louie Landale]

Bobman is right, but perhaps I can elaborate. Yes, you should bluff once for every time you would lagitamately bet that rediculous amount of money; which is when you have a Royal. Go figure out which hands to randomly bluff at if you want.

If he bluffs too much routinely call, if he bluffs not enough routinely fold. In the case you describe against an opponent who IS willing to bluff at all, I'd say always call him when he bets since anybody using his cards to figure out when to bluff with the same frequency as getting a royal, will make a huge mistake and bluff far too often. The correct frequency would be about once per year and may represent a hand like: 2345789 of exactly 2 different suits. Someone who bluffs whenever they end up with "9 high" will be bluffing far too often.

Correct calling frequency is to when you don't know about the bettor's bluffing frequency. In this case you should call when YOU have a royal, and I suppose to snap off bluffs when you also have a K-straight flush. I'm not sure I've got this right.

- Louie