Weak Lead 3-bet on Turn: $2/$4 6-Max

[Big_Jim]

You would just call with, say.. JT right here? (Yeah, yeah, I know, you'd fold the flop)

[scdavis0]

Yes I would just call with JT. Let's give him a few hands.

1. A moderate hand such as AJo

You get a lot more value by just calling here. Almost anyone will pass to the turn raise, and I can value bet/raise the river much more deceptively. I haven't played my hand any differently than a busted draw.

2. A very strong hand such as AT/22/KT
If I raise his bet here and I get popped like this I'm obviously going to feel a little sick. An argument can me made that I have saved money by finding out that I'm probably way beat, but something like JT in this situation has a tendency to stick to your hands and not be folded. Maybe he is a donkey with T9.....

The times that he is not full such as when he has KT, a heart may hit on the river and freeze him up and save me money. Additionally I do give myself a chance to catch a jack or the case ten on the river by not putting myself in a situation where I can get totally blown off my hand.

3. A heart draw

I'm losing a few dollars of EV here by not charging him a bit more in this situation. On the other hand many players that semi bluff the turn in this situation will also stone cold bluff a blank river given that I have shown very little strength. So perhaps I'm not giving up any EV when he has the draw.

4. A total bluff

Calling again seems superior because he'll pass if I raise, and charge on if he actually had a hand. The ONLY bad part of this is if the river is a heart and he pounds the hell out of me, I may make the incorrect decision.

5. A worse ten

I do lose value here by not playing a bigger pot in a nice situation. There are the tens 2-9 that will give me action, but certainly not an unlimited amount.

[Big_Jim]

Good post.

I should've asked about KT, but it's probably similar.

Also, FWIW, I had made similar flop/turn bets recently v. a different player on a different table with the nut flush draw (villian also at other table). He just called, and stacked off on river when we both hit. No idea if villian is attentive enough to put these two things together.

[TheCat]

You are representing Tx, I believe you and call with TJ or better.

Villian also believes you and raises with AT or better