Is this play +ev?

DiceyPlay · #1 06-20-2005, 12:23 PM

Opponent is 8.5/4.25/12.5 after 94 hands

My thinking pre-flop is I've got an ace, let's see the flop for one small bet closing the action.

My thinking on the turn is he could have AA 3 ways, KK 3 ways, AK 9 ways.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero caps, MP1 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has As 9c (three of a kind, nines).
MP1 has Kh Ks (full house, kings full of nines).
Outcome: MP1 wins 16.25 BB. 

I think capping the turn costs me three extra bets. Do I normally win two extra bets instead of losing three?

Should I have not waited until the turn to cr? He's not going to lay down KK on the flop. He'll probably go into call-it-down mode until he hits his K on the turn -- right? Should I have slowed down on the turn when he 3 bet? I think AK was very likely at that point and he would have bet it that way too -- no?

All comments appreciated.

-DP

jba · #2 06-20-2005, 12:29 PM

I think waiting for the turn to c/r is fine. villain is either nearly dead with AK/AQ or drawing to 2 outs with a big pair, slowplaying seems fine here.

I think when you c/r the turn you are screaming that you have a 9 (esp from bb), and when he 3-bets it's time to call down.

ihardlyknowher · #3 06-20-2005, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking pre-flop is I've got an ace, let's see the flop for one small bet closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

This kind of thinking can be expensive. Given the villain's 12.5 aggression factor, I think I 3-bet the river.

toss · #4 06-20-2005, 12:35 PM

But villain's 8.25 vpip and 4.5 pfr makes it likely that he's only being that aggro with premium hands.

Petro · #5 06-20-2005, 12:36 PM

I'm benefiting from hindsight since you included results, but I think this an super easy fold pre-flop. You're getting crushed by anything Mr. UberRock is going to raise.

crunchy1 · #6 06-20-2005, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given the villain's 12.5 aggression factor, I think I 3-bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think THIS kind of thinking will get expensive. 8.5/4.25/12.5 = nut peddling. Ramming and jamming with 1st/2nd nuts. It's not a great read over only 94 hands but 3-betting the river here is serious chip spewage.

Call the turn 3-bet. Check/call the river.

SmileyEH · #7 06-20-2005, 12:38 PM

Against this player you're either up against KK and AK once he 3bets the turn. I think half the time he won't 3bet TPTK. There is still 12 combinations of AK but only 3 for KK. I think you can cap the turn. When he raises you on the rive ryou have to call though. I think you played it fine.

edit: I didn't even include the AA combinations which makes this an even easier cap.

-SmileyEH

ihardlyknowher · #8 06-20-2005, 12:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
8.5/4.25/12.5 = nut peddling

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I didn't think this one through.

[ QUOTE ]
Call the turn 3-bet. Check/call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

thejameser · #9 06-20-2005, 12:50 PM

i don't like the cap against this particular opponent, even though 94 hands is not a tremendous sample. in the heat of the moment i could see myself doing it too, though. you have to call down the river.

mtdoak · #10 06-20-2005, 12:53 PM

You should fold preflop, IMHO. Even at half price, most hands that he will raise with (unless he's a maniac or loose raiser) have you destoryed. You got a good flop with a bad turn. I usually lead the flop and let him raise it, then go crazy on the turn (though, I doubt I cap it)