10/20 AQ

jason_t · #1 12-18-2005, 05:44 PM

I am a huge loser with AQ at 10/20 so far. It's most likely sample size but I'm losing with it at a rate of -.34 BB/hand and winning 33.77% of the time with it (the clearest sign, imo, that I'm running badly with it). It's time to do some checking up.

SB is unknown. UTG+1 here is 47/6/1.15 after 1000 datamined hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, I raise, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, I call, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, I check.

River: (5 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets

SackUp · #2 12-18-2005, 06:21 PM

Is the question on the river? The rest seems standard.

+1's play is pretty odd. did he bet out with his gutshot w/ A10 or his oesd with Q10? Did he get scared of the board pair and think his weak K is no longer any good? Trying a screw play when his jacks hit? Was he just FOS on the flop and hoping to steal (his agg would probably indicate otherwise w/o reads).

The pot is decent sized, but at the lower end and you are not closing the betting. I'm not sure if 6:1 is enough here given the probable ranges of +1 w/o a read. I think Q10 is the only thing you are beating here, which I guess his play looks the most like, but not sure. Obviously if you think he is betting out any K or J on the turn then making the call is much easier. After talking through it I don't think a call is bad b/c I think he bets a K or J on the turn and his play is likely Q10 or maybe AQ that he was shy with preflop.

private joker · #3 12-18-2005, 06:51 PM

I'm not sure, but I think 1.15 is fairly aggressive for a guy who plays 47% of his hands. If so, he should be betting Ks and Js on the turn. His river bet may well be a stab at the pot. So I think folding is not the best play. I think it's between calling and raising; with raising being primarily to knock out SB who might have a weak K.

But SB is unknown -- we have no idea if he plays weak Ks like this or if he'll fold it. The pot's small, so a raise might not be worth it because SB won't have a better hand that he'll fold all that often. I guess I'm leaning towards a call. SB should fold and UTG should turn over 65s.

DpR · #4 12-18-2005, 07:10 PM

I think a K is the most likely hand. A lot of guy would get scared of that J on the turn. I think there is just enough doubt given that he is a donk that you can call the river though. He could have Q10 or 9,10 or some other random nonsense that he decided to bet the flop with. Wouldnt surprise me if you were good here 1 in 5.

mike l. · #5 12-18-2005, 07:19 PM

this is a river raise/fold. it's not really close. private joker's thinking on this was good.

Klepton · #6 12-18-2005, 09:31 PM

this is QT or a whiffed jack. mike l. was on point with a raise/fold.

CardSharpCook · #7 12-19-2005, 05:29 AM

Call that bitch down. You're good here at least 1 in 6 times.

BigEndian · #8 12-19-2005, 09:24 AM

That's interesting Mike, I looked at this and saw a clear call. I think the weak UTG+1 player has a K most of the time. And the SB may also have a K, but is very likely not folding it if he does. At least, not for the 3-1 you're costing yourself by raising (if you get a call from UTG with a worse hand).

And by calling, the SB may be induced to over-call with an under pair or other mistake.

- Jim

mike l. · #9 12-19-2005, 10:43 AM

"And the SB may also have a K, but is very likely not folding it if he does."

sb is forced to fold here virtually every time facing two cold. also if sb had a K he would bet the river after it gets checked through on the turn.

#10 12-19-2005, 10:56 AM

A flop raise makes this hand much easier to play in a whole bunch of ways.