Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?!

[SossMan]

MMMMooooooooooooo

[woodguy]

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Look your behind here, find a place you have a edge.

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I thnk my equity + the price I'm getting is a pretty good edge.

My big question is how does MP1's hand effect my edge.

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you concerned with the call by MP1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he really affect my equity.

[ QUOTE ]
Did you think you had any FE against UTG+1?

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I stated in the post I *knew* he was coming along, and I had 40% pot equity against him if he has what I think he has, I'm getting a good price and not worried about FE.

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt MP1 has a hand like AK and he certainly doesn't have a flush draw or 86 so your chances of winning the pot go down if MP1 is in there but if you hit your straight or set the chances are pretty high that you'll triple up. If I'm going all-in here I want three-way action. Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought he *may* have a flush draw, but he probably raises it.

Schwza outlines my concerns fairly well.

I'm trying to figure if my loss in pot equity if MP1 comes along is more than the chips he's putting in (i.e. if he comes, is that a good thing or bad thing.)

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

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That was my initial fear, but doesn't a flush draw raise on the flop?

Regards,
Woodguy

If this was a small buy-in tourney, I would almost guarantee the MP1's flat call is because he has AKs (or at least the nut flush draw). On a bigger buy-in tourney, I don't know if this type of donk behavior exists or not. Either way I'm folding because I'm a scaredy-cat.

-Gross

[SossMan]

oh, and the fact that this is early is MORE of a reason to Tarzan there.

[Ben5505]

I dont think a flush draw always raises on the flop. There were still players to act behind him...he could have wanted their calls in the pot too, while not wanting to get pushed all in to a reraise since he had such a deep stack.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
oh, and the fact that this is early is MORE of a reason to Tarzan there.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
MMMMooooooooooooo

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Tarzan or Mooo???

Make up your mind!!!

Regards,
Woodguy

I don't know what I'd do, but re: utg+1's hand
I would be pretty surprised if he had a big pair
People seem to be terrified of the utg limp+raise, but like 90% (literally) of the time I see it it's a medium pair that limped for set value and now wants to get it headsup with the big pot forming. That said, I would still guess it's an overpair that's going all the way, but a set is also possible, which would decrease your equity more. Also, I tend to play more in the $10-$30 range, so maybe $100 mtts are different.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your read on the original raiser. It definitely appears he has an overpair, probably AA-QQ. The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

Two of your outs, 4 ,8 are tainted to a flush so I would not consider them outs. Thus you only have six clean outs, if you include the red sixes. This, in my mind, would necessitate a fold. I don't think you need to put all your chips into the pot versus an overpair and a big draw.

If you do decide to push, I believe the apparent overpair would call and of course the big draw would call since he is getting nearly the correct pot odds.

Stipe

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That, of course is my biggest concern.

If we put MP1 specifically on the flush draw, my equity drops to 26%, but the pot increases to 296 BB's and I'm paying for 28% of the pot, so even if we put him ONLY on AKs, its still really close.

If we put MP1 on a range that inlcudes more than AKs, I think I have enough equity to still go tarzan on his ass.

Regards,
Woodguy