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  #21  
Old 10-08-2005, 12:47 PM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: Allin every hand study finished. Post Mortem time.

Thanks for doing it. It works almost too well. It's important for your opponents who keep typing "No skill. Is that all you know?" to remain under the impression that the strategy is bad.
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  #22  
Old 10-08-2005, 12:59 PM
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Default Re: Allin every hand study finished. Post Mortem time.

[ QUOTE ]

But, as far as your experiment goes, I didn't get it and still don't. So, you've systematized what is already a crapshoot anyway. Heads up is all about exploiting small edges. The better player already has an edge. Maybe you've taken away an opponents edge. Maybe you've exploited your edge in a different way, or negated your edge but shifted it. Who the ef knows? As I said, I never really understood what the point was, anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty simple actually: this strategy is clearly optimal against someone who folds WAY too frequently. Against a less extreme (but still too tight) opponent, the optimal strategy would be to push x% where x is pretty high, and this strategy's still +EV.

The proper counter to this strategy, unlike what Daliman said, is to call with all hands that have sligtly less than 40% equity against random hands (the higher the blinds relative to the short stack, the lower the neccessary equity). From these stats, and from a few other posts about the 215s, I'm pretty sure that the majority of the players at the 215s are able to do this, although you can certainly play inoptimally and still have an edge over this strategy (I bet calling with 50% or better hands wins with 10x BB).
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  #23  
Old 10-08-2005, 01:17 PM
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Default Re: Allin every hand study finished. Post Mortem time.

Great experiment. If you're willing, i'd like to see it over more trials, but I can certainly understand your not wanting to do that.

The optimal strategy against this would be as follows (this was done using computer approximated equities against random hands, so the borderline hands could be off, but this is pretty damn close to optimal)

Shorty (ie, whichever of you is shorter) has 10x BB, call with hands that have 45% equity against random holding:

22+, 97+, T7+, J5+, Q2+, K2+, A2+, 78s, 96s, T5s+, J2s+

Shorty has 9x BB, call with hands that have 40% equity against random holding:

everything in previous list and 67, 86+, 95+, T2+, J2+, 56s, 57s, 84s+, 92s+

Shorty has 8x BB, call with hands that have 35% equity against random holding:

everything in previous list and 45, 64+, 74+, 82+, EVERY suited hand except 23s.

Shorty has 7x BB, call with hands that have 30% equity against random holding:

any two

Hope this helps.
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