Line Check - BB Hand Level 1

[badluckal]

Yeah, sorry, I didn't see the additional post about pre-flop until I completed my last post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, MP1 folded and Villan/MP2 called with KQo.

[KJL]

That is not what I meant, I worded it wrong. I was just saying that your implied odds are not as good as they seem because, you will only win about 3% of the time. I just don't like the call but, I think your play on the flop and turn was great and if you know you can get away from top pair of nines and you know you can outplay your oppenents from the flop on then this call might be +EV. Also I don't know what kind of tournament this was, so I don't know what the players might be mi-raising with.

[badluckal]

[ QUOTE ]
That is not what I meant, I worded it wrong. I was just saying that your implied odds are not as good as they seem because, you will only win about 3% of the time. I just don't like the call but, I think your play on the flop and turn was great and if you know you can get away from top pair of nines and you know you can outplay your oppenents from the flop on then this call might be +EV. Also I don't know what kind of tournament this was, so I don't know what the players might be mi-raising with.

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OK, I see what you mean. Thanks for clarifying [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I guess most feel that I made an error in calling out of the BB, but that the flop and turn play was good. I think the flop call was marginal and not really bad, but then again I am not that good [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Thats an easy call preflop with any 2 cards you hold in my opinion - providing u think ur a good plyr. i mean apart from hitting the 4-4-x, 9-9-x, 9-4-x sort of flops wots wrong with a 2-3-5 rainbow or 6-7-8 rainbow flop? or even if u flop a 4-5-J sort of flop and he bets not enuff into the pot - the u being a good plyr - would call this hoping to hit a 4 or possibly a 9 (although u may be dominated there) for the great implied odds potential.

Anyway this is early on in the torny, so anything goes. When i play in a decent size £ torny i would risk upto 33% of my stack early doors because its not really going to be used anyway until the levels go up is it?

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Looks fine to me, but i think i'd just fold it preflop

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that is rubish talk,the pot is about 150 and it costs him 20 to call which is more than 7:1 odds.if you think he should folded this then you have nothing about odds and i think poker is the wrong thing for you.
your call was compeletly justified giving the odds,they play it self looks fine to me.
to be honest if this is a rebuy and your in the rebuy period ,i would not even give it a second thought,you could be facing a set or a higher two pair,some one could have K9,but not likely seen as you have a 9 and one floped,more than likely your facing a flush draw,or K with bad kicker.
the reason why you call in situations like this when ur getting good odds,is exactly this,you flop a strong hand and whats more is no one would susspect it.so you should make the most of it.you may get out drawn or somehting,but as long as your not making a mistake,then you dont really have control over others if they want to make a mistake.you raised enough so that if any of them was on a flush draw,they were not getting the odds to draw.

[Exitonly]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I do infact know something about odds.

After messing around w/ some preflop equity.. you're about 14% to win this hand if it's played all the way to tht end. Which makes you about a 6.5:1 underdog. So that 7:1 odds looks good right? Theres implied odds too? No.. you're not going to see 5 cards.. you're going to see 3 cards, barring a pretty special flop. I wish i had the statistics for when you hit this flop hard.. but again even when you do, you need THEM to hit it hard too in order to get paid off.

I'm not saying you won't even win big pots with this hand, but it's a money loser, you piss away enough small pots (and medium pots if you flop top pair and still only have 30% equity).

You say you're good enough to be able to play hands like this, but for that to be true you have to draw a lot of chips out of your opponent when you hit it hard, and manage not to lose many when you get outdrawn (which will happen a fair share.. against 3 opponents and a flop of 99x you're only 75%. Granted not all of them will stick around, if any, so in reality it's higher, but when you get 'sucked out' on.. you're losing all of your chips)

I really, really, think this is -EV for most players on this forum. Playing tigheter preflop would help almost everyone here, and I think this is one of those situations.


Maybe i'm just being stubborn here, I wish someone with more than 7 posts would give there opinion so we have some more experienced opinions.

I had a similar situation the other night, and I'm wondering what you guys think. I had Q4o in the BB. UTG minraises for 20 chips, SB calls. I call. Flop hits KQ4, suits irrelevant. SB bets 500. I think about the fact that Ks, Qs, 4s, and KQ are all possible holdings for either of them (although Qs and 4s much less likely given my holding them), then I go all in with 6xx chips. UTG goes all in, SB thinks for a minute, types a question in the chat box, and then calls. SB has AKo, BB has Aces. I take the main pot, UTG takes the rest. 20 chip risk let me triple up on one hand. It seems to me that this is as many chips as I would piss away in 30 tournaments calling minraises from the BB (or calling from the SB). Harrington advocates occassionally raising with medium suited connectors because when you hit you hit big and no one can put you on it. Isn't this a similar situation? I know I'm calling a minraise from the BB, but when I do hit, I hit big and TPTK or overpair pays me off (on the other hand, sets screw me, and straights/flushes might, but these categories of hands can screw AKs and As too). I suppose the question is what do you play here? A7? Q4 is certainly a worse holding, but somehow it seems easier to play when a good flop hits than A7 when the A comes. And even a flop like AK7 or AQ7 makes me a bit squeamish. It seems like a lot of hands get paid off every time when you hit two pair with the A7. I don't know too many people who can lay down top and bottom pair.

As a counterpoint to my defense of my highly questionable preflop play here, I have recently played T3o in the BB with unraised blinds, flopped trips and been busted by the full house. I've also raised JTs in MP for cheap (suited I think, can't remember position), and had trip tens busted by AT, so even with very nice flops, hands can be destroyed.

This is something I've been thinking about for a little while. Can you always make long term decisions in MTTs? When you decide to make short term ones, it must be very situationally appropriate, but I guess I'm wondering if it should ever be done. Should I take a risk at a slight statistical disadvantage because the reward cannot be expressed merely in terms of chips accumulated long run but in what those chips do for my chances of winning this tournament? Even if the exact same decision busted me out of 2 MTTs early already. If it doubles or triples me up this time, my chances of winning seem much greater. I guess what I mean is that in my mind having 2x as many chips in an MTT doesn't give me a 2x as great chance of winning or making the FT but more like a 3x or chance. So, do I need to consider not only pot and implied odds but winning/final table odds? Maybe this is the worst idea ever, but it seems similar to what players will to in rebuy tournaments. They play to build a large stack, not to mathematically eke out the most chips.

Will

P.S. These are just my ramblings. I'm thinking out loud, I'm not saying that you should gamble all your chips at a 60/40 disadvantage. Oh, and Exitonly, I've got like 10 posts, that's gotta count for something, right? No, really, I know I'm a noob.

[Exitonly]

well i just got back from class, and this post has been nagging on my brain, so instead of paying attention i started an analysis on this kind of stuff.. i'm gonig to make a post later today about it see what kind of responses.

but one thing i shouhld point out, theres a big difference between Q4o, and a suited connecctor. Q4o has no flush or straight possibilities, so the hand is only good when you hit two pair/set. Suited connectors have twice the value, because they're good for flushes, strraights, and the two pair/set value.

now i'm going to get back to the math of this stuff.

[ QUOTE ]
well i just got back from class, and this post has been nagging on my brain, so instead of paying attention i started an analysis on this kind of stuff.. i'm gonig to make a post later today about it see what kind of responses.

but one thing i shouhld point out, theres a big difference between Q4o, and a suited connecctor. Q4o has no flush or straight possibilities, so the hand is only good when you hit two pair/set. Suited connectors have twice the value, because they're good for flushes, strraights, and the two pair/set value.

now i'm going to get back to the math of this stuff.

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Hey Exit, you're right about the added value of suited connectors. I'd never play Q4o like suited connectors by raising in EP like Harrington recommends occassionally doing. The difference is though, I only have to call a small bet rather than make a fairly significant one. If you raise with suited connectors, you might get re-raised and never even be able to see a flop You're risking not only 3-5x bb worth of chips to see the flop and probably fold (or possibly take the blinds), you're risking it to maybe not even see the flop. I know that it's not the same situation (although I do think it bears some similarities) and that with suited connectors the possibilities for big hands are much bigger and are probably more solid hands as well, but being in the bb with UTG making the minraise, you're guaranteed that you only have to risk 1 bb and you will see the flop.

Will

P.S. (again) Thanks for all of your advice recently Exit. You've responded to a couple of my requests for help (which I desperately need). Thank you.

[dmk]

After reading through the entire thread I'm troubled by the fact that everyone accepts the c/r on the flop. With a flush draw out, I'd be more inclined to be the one betting 80 on the flop flop and then 3-betting all-in when it gets raised by a K protecting his hand. You'll accum. way more chips in this manner. Check/raising gives someone a chance to fold a K in this spot.