QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front - Page 2

justT · #11 09-07-2005, 03:52 PM

Very interesting, the call is:
Neutral to slightly +(chip EV)
Very +(Fun EV)
but has a relatively high probability of sending you to the rails

I’m guessing you believe the call was +($ EV) as well. If I wave my magic wand and move the hand to the bubble, is it still +($ EV)?

woodguy · #12 09-07-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I’m guessing you believe the call was +($ EV) as well. If I wave my magic wand and move the hand to the bubble, is it still +($ EV)?

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were the bubble it would still be +CEV (chip EV), but -$EV given the amount of times I go to the rail assuming if I fold I make the $$$ every time.

I would also probably play the hand differently PF as in level 1 I'm pretty deep (80BB's), but at the bubble If I have 30BB's I'm probably in the top 10% of those left. Shorter stacks would have probably made me raise PF as I would want to know how strong I am on the cheapest street (PF), whereas with this example my "plan" was to try to extract more on later streets because I was deep enough to find out how strong I was later and still fold comfortably if behind.

Regards,
Woodguy

betgo · #13 09-07-2005, 04:35 PM

Calling 3-way, you were 46% against AK and JJ. Against AA and JJ, you would have 19%. You are not likely to see hands a lot weaker than JJ or AK here. I think this is a fairly close decision. If it is 50-50 you are not dominated, the call is about even money. I have a feeling this is cEV-, but if you want to gamble, it is probably OK.

justT · #14 09-07-2005, 04:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If it were the bubble it would still be +CEV (chip EV), but -$EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I hoped you'd say that. No wait, I was afraid you'd say that. My head hurts.

woodguy · #15 09-07-2005, 06:27 PM

I got my "even money" stat from this:

(I can't copy from pokerstove)

QQ 35%
AA-JJ AK 38.5% Button
AA-88,AK 26.5% UTG

So its pretty close and the dead $$$ tips it a bit.

I think these ranges are fair as I have seen a lot of limp re-raises with pairs down to 22 especially early, as well as AK.

[ QUOTE ]
Against AA and JJ, you would have 19%.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but I can't put them on that narrow of a range with the action.

Regards,
Woodguy

betgo · #16 09-07-2005, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
got my "even money" stat from this:

(I can't copy from pokerstove)

QQ 35%
AA-JJ AK 38.5% Button
AA-88,AK 26.5% UTG

So its pretty close and the dead $$$ tips it a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are considering all those hands equally. That ius a faw of your mathematical analysis. AA or KK is a lot more likely than 88.

I think 35% is high. However, it is hard to see that it is less than 30%. I might gamble even if it is cEV- to build a big stack.

woodguy · #17 09-07-2005, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are considering all those hands equally. That ius a faw of your mathematical analysis. AA or KK is a lot more likely than 88

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you are getting at.

That is why I left out 77-22.

Early in a Super I wouldn't discount 77-22 at all, nor AK.

If I add in 77-22 I am in very good shape.

To counterbalance the weighting effect, I left 77-22 out.

Regards,
Woodguy

betgo · #18 09-07-2005, 06:48 PM

lol. I am glad you would up against AK and JJ, and I don't think it is a terrible call, but I think your math is optimistic.

woodguy · #19 09-07-2005, 06:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc.

Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early.

OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on :

AA-JJ AK.

QQ 32.5%
UTG 33.5%
Button 33.5%

Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call.

I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight.

Regards,
Woodguy

betgo · #20 09-07-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc.

Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early.

OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on :

AA-JJ AK.

QQ 32.5%
UTG 33.5%
Button 33.5%

Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call.

I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think these figures are about right. Yeah someone might have Q2. However, AA or KK are a lot more likely than JJ or AK. Not everyone calls 50xBB with JJ or AK.