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Old 04-23-2003, 09:56 AM
Rockfish Rockfish is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 142
Default Missed bets

I think I left some sugar on the table here.

Party Poker 0.5/1.

I'm on the button with J[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img].

2 MP limpers to me, I raise. SB calls, BB folds, limpers call. Four to the flop with 8 sb.

Flop comes 9[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]. Ruh Roh.

All check to me, I bet out, SB calls, 1st limper calls, 2nd limper folds. Three to the turn with 11 sb.

Turn comes T[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img].

SB comes to life and bets, limper calls, I call.

River comes 2[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img].

SB bets out again, MP folds, I call.

Questions:

1) What do you think my bet on the flop? The table was pretty passive, so I didn't expect more than one raise. If raised I think I have the odds to call to see the turn (11:1 for the gutshot with between 8 and 11 sb in the pot depending on the number of callers).

2) Should I have raised on the turn? I feared AJ at the time and that was my primary thought although with the benefit of 20 x 20 hindsight the loose caller could have had me beat on the flop and made two pair on the turn when I hit my straight.

3) Pretty sure I should have raised the river given my analysis of point 2. I'm ahead of every hand that could play except precisely AJ, and many hands were playing.

Results:

SB had K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] for two pair on the turn.
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Old 04-23-2003, 11:09 AM
togilvie togilvie is offline
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Location: Boston, MA
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Default Re: Missed bets

You shouldn't be afraid of AJ. Since you've got two of them, Bayes indicates that the probability your opponent is holding AJ is much more unlikely.

I definitely would have raised the turn. If I raised and SB bet out again on the river, I might just call it down. But it would be hard to resist the raise.
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Old 04-23-2003, 11:27 AM
Rockfish Rockfish is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 142
Default Re: Missed bets

You're absolutely right and that's exactly what I was thinking as soon as the hand ended. That's why I requested the hand history and wrote it up.

I need to convince myself that most of the time he won't have AJ just based on the laws of probability. At the same time the recent short-term data I have on probability suggests that if he's in there against me at the end, he's got the one hand I don't want to see...

Rockfish

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