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#21
06-29-2005, 01:44 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
Piiop:
[ QUOTE ] Not sure what's going on here, but I don't see anything wrong with calling the flop. He's getting 11.5:1. He has 1.5 outs for BD nut flush, 1.5 outs for BD no gap str8, and 3 A outs discounted however much you feel like it. Can someone explain why they would fold??? [/ QUOTE ] I think you are being a bit generous on the BD straight draw, but more importantly, there are still 2 players left to act. This is a very thin call, imho, and getting raised even a small percentage of the time is a killer. --Rico 
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#23
06-29-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
BD no gapper str8's are valued at 1.5 outs. Maybe you can discount it slightly because the 8, 9 will give any T a better straight, but you can't discount very much for that. I'm also not too worried about getting check-raised here. It just doesn't seem like a board and action that will have a flop-checkraise on it. I guess player reads and table conditions would make it easier to judge something like that. But, UTG+1 isn't that aggressive, we have nothing on MP1, and if they're aware of MP2's passivity then they are probably rarely check-raising. And 11.5:1 on the flop...cmon.
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#24
06-29-2005, 02:02 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
First all I think you need to fold this pf. A6s isn't that strong of a hand to be cc first in. Anyway though, I don't mind the call on the flop. There are lots of turn cards that can really help you. Turn is standard. BET this river. It is possible someone holds a T but I don't think so given the action that took place. If someone raises you than you just have to cry.
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#25
06-29-2005, 02:20 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
[ QUOTE ]
First all I think you need to fold this pf. A6s isn't that strong of a hand to be cc first in. [/ QUOTE ] Hero is in the BB and getting 1:9 with A6s. This is an easy call.
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#27
06-29-2005, 03:06 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
[ QUOTE ]
BD no gapper str8's are valued at 1.5 outs. Maybe you can discount it slightly because the 8, 9 will give any T a better straight, but you can't discount very much for that. I'm also not too worried about getting check-raised here. It just doesn't seem like a board and action that will have a flop-checkraise on it. I guess player reads and table conditions would make it easier to judge something like that. But, UTG+1 isn't that aggressive, we have nothing on MP1, and if they're aware of MP2's passivity then they are probably rarely check-raising. And 11.5:1 on the flop...cmon. [/ QUOTE ] 1.5 outs is a perfect backdoor straight draw with 2 cards in your hand and not just one. with only one of those cards in your hand it's more likely that you have to split the pot or you lose and the st8 is so obvious that you get less action. and an other important point is that you will have to fold the turn a significant part of the time (even if you pick up a gutshot on the turn) and if you find a good enough hand to continue you will probably have to call a bet on the turn, giving you reversed implied odds. in my earlier post you can see my estimation for the number of outs in this hand.
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#28
06-29-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
[ QUOTE ]
1.5 outs is a perfect backdoor straight draw with 2 cards in your hand and not just one. with only one of those cards in your hand it's more likely that you have to split the pot or you lose [/ QUOTE ] What is the difference between holding A6 on a 57J board and holding QJ on a T 5 2 board - only looking at the backdoor straight probability? Why is it more likely you will lose? Discounting this to .5 outs it way, way too much. [ QUOTE ] the st8 is so obvious that you get less action [/ QUOTE ] This is not a large concern. [ QUOTE ] and an other important point is that you will have to fold the turn a significant part of the time (even if you pick up a gutshot on the turn) [/ QUOTE ] Why? [ QUOTE ] and if you find a good enough hand to continue you will probably have to call a bet on the turn, giving you reversed implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] What is wrong with calling a bet on turn? This is not what reverse implied odds are.
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#29
06-29-2005, 05:34 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1.5 outs is a perfect backdoor straight draw with 2 cards in your hand and not just one. with only one of those cards in your hand it's more likely that you have to split the pot or you lose [/ QUOTE ] What is the difference between holding A6 on a 57J board and holding QJ on a T 5 2 board - only looking at the backdoor straight probability? Why is it more likely you will lose? Discounting this to .5 outs it way, way too much. [/ QUOTE ] the difference is that you will have to split with any other one card straight and lose to any 2 card straight. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] the st8 is so obvious that you get less action [/ QUOTE ] This is not a large concern. [/ QUOTE ] no, but it is a concern. it makes a bad call even worse imo[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] and an other important point is that you will have to fold the turn a significant part of the time (even if you pick up a gutshot on the turn) [/ QUOTE ] Why? [/ QUOTE ] because you won't get good enough pot odds to justify a call with a gutshot on the turn[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] and if you find a good enough hand to continue you will probably have to call a bet on the turn, giving you reversed implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] What is wrong with calling a bet on turn? This is not what reverse implied odds are. [/ QUOTE ] have a look at the definition at SSHE. what i am talking about is exactly reversed implied odds. nothing is wrong with a call on the turn (if you pick up a good draw). but the possible necessity to call on the turn makes the call on the flop wrong (reversed implied odds!). hot and cold it would be a marginal call on the flop. but poker is not played hot and cold.
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#30
06-29-2005, 06:39 PM
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Re: A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.
[ QUOTE ]
have a look at the definition at SSHE. what i am talking about is exactly reversed implied odds. nothing is wrong with a call on the turn (if you pick up a good draw). but the possible necessity to call on the turn makes the call on the flop wrong (reversed implied odds!). [/ QUOTE ] You are severely mistaken. I suggest you take your own advice and read about reverse implied odds and backdoor draws yourself. This situation does not have anything to do with reverse implied odds.
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